Aena S.M.E., S.A. (BME:AENA) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

The quarterly results for Aena S.M.E., S.A. (BME:AENA) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of €1.6b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 3.5% to hit €4.21 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Aena S.M.E

Following the latest results, Aena S.M.E's 18 analysts are now forecasting revenues of €6.04b in 2025. This would be a modest 6.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 4.9% to €13.57. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €6.03b and earnings per share (EPS) of €13.46 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €206, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Aena S.M.E analyst has a price target of €234 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €129. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Aena S.M.E's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Aena S.M.E's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.8% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Aena S.M.E is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €206, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Aena S.M.E analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Aena S.M.E .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.