Telefónica, S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Telefónica, S.A. (BME:TEF) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.0% to €4.21 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.0018, some 98% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €10b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Telefónica

Following last week's earnings report, Telefónica's 18 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €41.1b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Telefónica is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of €0.31 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €41.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.31 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €4.25, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Telefónica at €5.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €3.20. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's also worth noting that the years of declining revenue look to have come to an end, with the forecast stauing flat to the end of 2025. Historically, Telefónica's top line has shrunk approximately 4.2% annually over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.2% per year. Although Telefónica's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €4.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Telefónica analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Telefónica (including 1 which can't be ignored) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.