Earnings Miss: Acerinox, S.A. Missed EPS By 9.5% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Acerinox, S.A. (BME:ACX) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.5% to €8.47 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of €1.3b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 9.5% to hit €0.19 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Acerinox

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Acerinox's eleven analysts is for revenues of €6.76b in 2025. This reflects a huge 20% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 638% to €1.25. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €6.92b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.32 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of €13.16, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Acerinox's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Acerinox analyst has a price target of €15.80 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €6.90. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Acerinox's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 16% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 8.5% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.1% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Acerinox to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Acerinox. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Acerinox going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Acerinox that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.