Gerresheimer AG Just Missed EPS By 14%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a mediocre week for Gerresheimer AG (ETR:GXI) shareholders, with the stock dropping 20% to €77.50 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at €499m, although statutory earnings per share came in 14% below what the analysts expected, at €0.79 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Gerresheimer

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Gerresheimer from 14 analysts is for revenues of €2.36b in 2025. If met, it would imply a solid 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 43% to €4.98. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €2.44b and earnings per share (EPS) of €5.63 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

The consensus price target fell 11% to €117, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Gerresheimer, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €150 and the most bearish at €93.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Gerresheimer's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 9.6% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Gerresheimer is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Gerresheimer. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Gerresheimer going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Gerresheimer that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.