Stock Analysis
Shareholders in Bayerische Motoren Werke (ETR:BMW) are in the red if they invested a year ago
While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:BMW) share price up 15% in a single quarter. But in truth the last year hasn't been good for the share price. In fact the stock is down 24% in the last year, well below the market return.
So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
Check out our latest analysis for Bayerische Motoren Werke
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Unfortunately Bayerische Motoren Werke reported an EPS drop of 4.7% for the last year. The share price decline of 24% is actually more than the EPS drop. Unsurprisingly, given the lack of EPS growth, the market seems to be more cautious about the stock. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 5.96.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
Dive deeper into Bayerische Motoren Werke's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Bayerische Motoren Werke's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Bayerische Motoren Werke the TSR over the last 1 year was -19%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Investors in Bayerische Motoren Werke had a tough year, with a total loss of 19% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 19%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 9%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Bayerische Motoren Werke has 2 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About XTRA:BMW
Bayerische Motoren Werke
Engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of automobiles and motorcycles, and spare parts and accessories worldwide.