Earnings Update: Bystronic AG (VTX:BYS) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts

Last week saw the newest annual earnings release from Bystronic AG (VTX:BYS), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues of CHF930m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at CHF20.28, missing estimates by 3.5%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Bystronic

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from four analysts covering Bystronic is for revenues of CHF764.7m in 2024. This implies an uneasy 18% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CHF824.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF12.18 in 2024. Overall, while there's been a small dip in revenue estimates, the consensus now no longer provides an EPS estimate. This implies that the market believes revenue is more important following the latest results.

We'd also point out that thatthe analysts have made no major changes to their price target of CHF535. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Bystronic at CHF610 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CHF475. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Bystronic is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Bystronic's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 18% to the end of 2024. This tops off a historical decline of 14% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.4% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Bystronic is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The clear low-light was that the analysts cut their forecast revenue estimates for Bystronic next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

At least one of Bystronic's four analysts has provided estimates out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Bystronic that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.