Earnings Beat: Neoenergia S.A. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Neoenergia S.A. (BVMF:NEOE3) defied analyst predictions to release its full-year results, which were ahead of market expectations. It was a decent earnings report, with revenues and statutory earnings per share (EPS) both performing well. Revenues were 13% higher than the analysts had forecast, at R$49b, while EPS of R$2.99 beat analyst models by 17%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Neoenergia

Taking into account the latest results, the eight analysts covering Neoenergia provided consensus estimates of R$45.0b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a considerable 8.1% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 38% to R$1.85 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$45.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$2.29 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at R$29.23, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Neoenergia, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at R$37.55 and the most bearish at R$20.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Neoenergia's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 8.1% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 10.0% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.3% per year. It's pretty clear that Neoenergia's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Neoenergia. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R$29.23, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Neoenergia analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Neoenergia (2 are significant!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.