Stock Analysis

JHSF Participações' (BVMF:JHSF3) earnings growth rate lags the 21% CAGR delivered to shareholders

Published
BOVESPA:JHSF3

JHSF Participações S.A. (BVMF:JHSF3) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 17% in the last month. On the bright side the returns have been quite good over the last half decade. After all, the share price is up a market-beating 97% in that time. While the returns over the last 5 years have been good, we do feel sorry for those shareholders who haven't held shares that long, because the share price is down 40% in the last three years.

Although JHSF Participações has shed R$319m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

See our latest analysis for JHSF Participações

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, JHSF Participações achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 15% per year. This EPS growth is remarkably close to the 14% average annual increase in the share price. This indicates that investor sentiment towards the company has not changed a great deal. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

BOVESPA:JHSF3 Earnings Per Share Growth February 15th 2024

Dive deeper into JHSF Participações' key metrics by checking this interactive graph of JHSF Participações's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of JHSF Participações, it has a TSR of 160% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in JHSF Participações had a tough year, with a total loss of 3.6% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 19%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 21% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with JHSF Participações (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Brazilian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.