Weak Financial Prospects Seem To Be Dragging Down Treasury Wine Estates Limited (ASX:TWE) Stock

It is hard to get excited after looking at Treasury Wine Estates' (ASX:TWE) recent performance, when its stock has declined 2.9% over the past three months. We decided to study the company's financials to determine if the downtrend will continue as the long-term performance of a company usually dictates market outcomes. Specifically, we decided to study Treasury Wine Estates' ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

See our latest analysis for Treasury Wine Estates

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Treasury Wine Estates is:

3.1% = AU$153m ÷ AU$4.9b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each A$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made A$0.03 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Treasury Wine Estates' Earnings Growth And 3.1% ROE

It is hard to argue that Treasury Wine Estates' ROE is much good in and of itself. Even compared to the average industry ROE of 12%, the company's ROE is quite dismal. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 10% seen by Treasury Wine Estates over the last five years is not surprising. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. Such as - low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

However, when we compared Treasury Wine Estates' growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 12% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Treasury Wine Estates is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Treasury Wine Estates Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Treasury Wine Estates' declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 100% (or a retention ratio of -0.2%). With only a little being reinvested into the business, earnings growth would obviously be low or non-existent. Our risks dashboard should have the 2 risks we have identified for Treasury Wine Estates.

In addition, Treasury Wine Estates has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 68% over the next three years. The fact that the company's ROE is expected to rise to 13% over the same period is explained by the drop in the payout ratio.

Summary

On the whole, Treasury Wine Estates' performance is quite a big let-down. The low ROE, combined with the fact that the company is paying out almost if not all, of its profits as dividends, has resulted in the lack or absence of growth in its earnings. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.