Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Argo Investments Limited's (ASX:ARG) Shares

When close to half the companies in Australia have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 19x, you may consider Argo Investments Limited (ASX:ARG) as a stock to potentially avoid with its 26.2x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

For instance, Argo Investments' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Argo Investments

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Argo Investments, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Argo Investments would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 20%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 66% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 25% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's alarming that Argo Investments' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Argo Investments' P/E?

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Argo Investments currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 1 warning sign for Argo Investments that we have uncovered.

You might be able to find a better investment than Argo Investments. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com