Update shared on10 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 8.96%Analysts have raised their price target for Pagaya Technologies to $38.00, citing robust EBITDA margins driven by strong unit economics, rapid expansion via its integrated B2B2C model, and demonstrated success diversifying into new underwriting verticals.
Analyst Commentary
- Exceptional unit economics and operating leverage are resulting in strong EBITDA margins.
- The B2B2C model integrating directly into lenders' platforms allows for rapid, step-function growth by adding new partners.
- Existing partnerships create meaningful barriers to entry for competitors.
- Achieved scale in auto and point-of-sale underwriting demonstrates ability to diversify beyond personal loans.
- Business model supports continued growth as the platform expands into new verticals and partners.
What's in the News
- Pagaya Technologies launched POSH, a $300 million AAA-rated asset-backed revolving securitization program focused on point-of-sale financing, enhancing lending capacity and capital efficiency for POS providers.
- The company provided revenue guidance for Q2 2025, expecting revenue of $290–$310 million and GAAP net income of $0–$10 million.
- Q3 2025 earnings guidance forecasts network volume of $2.75–$2.95 billion, revenue and other income of $330–$350 million, and GAAP net income of $10–$20 million.
- Full-year 2025 earnings guidance was raised, projecting network volume of $10.5–$11.5 billion, revenue and other income of $1.25–$1.325 billion, and GAAP net income of $55–$75 million.
- Pagaya was dropped from several Russell Value indices but was simultaneously added to various Russell Growth indices, reflecting a shift in index classification.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Pagaya Technologies
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from $34.88 to $38.00.
- The Future P/E for Pagaya Technologies has significantly risen from 11.59x to 14.24x.
- The Net Profit Margin for Pagaya Technologies has significantly fallen from 20.11% to 17.42%.
Disclaimer
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