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Advanced AI Underwriting And Embedded Finance Will Open Markets

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PGY
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 28 May 2025

Update shared on01 Aug 2025

Fair value Increased 13%
Next
AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
US$40.50
17.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
15 Aug
US$33.30
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1Y
179.1%
7D
16.1%

Analysts raised Pagaya Technologies' price target to $33.08, citing strong EBITDA margins driven by exceptional unit economics and operating leverage, effective B2B2C expansion into auto and point-of-sale lending, and high barriers to entry from embedded lender relationships.


Analyst Commentary


  • Exceptional unit economics and operating leverage are driving strong EBITDA margins.
  • The B2B2C model enables stepwise growth by integrating directly with other lenders' platforms, facilitating expansion through new partnerships.
  • Barriers to entry are established through entrenched relationships with lenders.
  • The company has reached meaningful scale in auto and point-of-sale segments, showcasing its ability to diversify beyond personal loans.
  • Overall business model and execution demonstrate solid potential for continued, diversified growth.

What's in the News


  • Pagaya Technologies forecasts Q2 2025 revenue of $290–$310 million and GAAP net income of $0–$10 million.
  • The company dropped from multiple Russell Value indices and was added to several Russell Growth indices, reflecting a shift in index classification.
  • Pagaya launched POSH, a new $300 million AAA-rated revolving securitization program aimed at point-of-sale financing, expanding lending capacity and capital efficiency.
  • FY 2025 guidance was raised: network volume expected at $9.5–$11 billion, total revenue and other income at $1.175–$1.3 billion, and GAAP net income at $10–$45 million.

Valuation Changes


Summary of Valuation Changes for Pagaya Technologies

  • The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from $30.98 to $33.08.
  • The Future P/E for Pagaya Technologies has risen slightly from 13.59x to 14.08x.
  • The Net Profit Margin for Pagaya Technologies has risen slightly from 14.86% to 15.34%.

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.