Update shared on 18 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 29%Arvinas' analyst price target has been revised downward from approximately $17.44 to $12.31 per share. Analysts cite increased competitive risks for vepdegestrant along with heightened uncertainty surrounding the company's future commercial prospects.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research updates on Arvinas highlight diverging views within the analyst community, reflecting both confidence in the company's pipeline and growing concerns regarding its execution and market positioning.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts note that Arvinas maintains an attractive valuation relative to its substantial cash balance. Shares are seen as undervalued after setbacks in its breast cancer portfolio.
- Recent data on ARV-102, an oral LRRK2 degrader for Parkinson's Disease and Progressive Supranuclear Palsy, show promising biomarker-driven efficacy and support advancement to further clinical development.
- Operational realignment, including reallocating resources and reducing workforce, is viewed as an opportunity to support core oncology and neuroscience assets. This could provide a potential catalyst for future upside.
- There is confidence that the company's multiple clinical programs in early-stage oncology and neurology represent several potential drivers for renewed growth, supporting the share price.
- Bearish analysts highlight "rapidly evolving" competition in the metastatic breast cancer landscape, raising the risk of vepdegestrant's commercial obsolescence and pressuring future revenue prospects.
- Recent announcements to out-license vepdegestrant have introduced significant uncertainty around both the timing and probability of successful commercialization. This could weigh on valuation in the near term.
- Reductions to sales forecasts and price targets reflect a more cautious view on execution, especially as competitors progress and licensing deals become more challenging to secure.
- Shifts in investor focus toward cash burn rates indicate heightened scrutiny on the company's ability to efficiently manage its remaining capital, given delays and setbacks in its lead asset.
What's in the News
- Goldman Sachs downgraded Arvinas to Sell from Neutral and lowered its price target to $6 due to intensifying competition for vepdegestrant in metastatic breast cancer. The firm expects Arvinas shares to be influenced by cash burn considerations. (Goldman Sachs research note)
- Piper Sandler raised Arvinas' price target to $16 based on promising ARV-102 data for Parkinson's Disease, citing strong LRRK2 degradation and plans for a Phase Ib study in Progressive Supranuclear Palsy in 2026. Arvinas and Pfizer have also agreed to jointly out-license vepdegestrant, with a PDUFA date set for June 2026. (Piper Sandler update)
- Arvinas announced new patient-reported outcomes from the VERITAC-2 trial, indicating vepdegestrant provided a significant delay in quality of life deterioration compared to fulvestrant in advanced breast cancer patients. The drug's New Drug Application has been accepted by the FDA and received Fast Track designation. (Company announcement)
- The company presented preclinical data for ARV-806, a KRAS G12D degrader, which demonstrated strong anti-tumor activity and high KRAS degradation in models of pancreatic, colorectal, and lung cancer. ARV-806 is now being evaluated in a Phase 1 trial. (Company announcement)
- Arvinas and Pfizer are seeking a commercialization partner for vepdegestrant and have announced a workforce reduction of about 15%, mainly in roles related to vepdegestrant. The company expects this change will extend its cash runway into the second half of 2028. (Company announcement)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: Dropped significantly from $17.44 to $12.31 per share. This reflects a more cautious outlook on the company's valuation.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 6.78% to 6.96%, which indicates heightened perceived risk in projecting future cash flows.
- Revenue Growth: The projected decline is now less severe, improving from -25.19% to -20.13%.
- Net Profit Margin: Narrowed from 23.34% to 20.88%, suggesting greater cost pressures or reduced profitability expectations.
- Future P/E: Reduced sharply from 51.87x to 23.58x. This signals lower anticipated earnings multiples and valuation compression.
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