Update shared on25 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 5.42%Arvinas’ consensus price target was reduced to $17.44, reflecting increased commercialization uncertainty for vepdegestrant following the decision to seek a third-party partner, restructuring, and delays to peak sales estimates despite ongoing support for the early-stage pipeline.
Analyst Commentary
- Recent decision by Arvinas and Pfizer to seek a third-party partner for vepdegestrant has introduced significant uncertainty around commercialization timing and strategy, prompting downside risk to valuation.
- Bearish analysts highlight the need to out-license vepdeg as a reset moment that could delay or diminish peak sales estimates, given uncertainty over eventual commercialization and tighter FDA action period.
- Arvinas is undertaking organizational restructuring, including a 15% workforce reduction and capital reallocation from vepdeg to internal oncology and neuroscience programs (ARV-102, ARV-393, ARV-806), reflecting a focus on core pipeline assets.
- Bullish analysts identify the current share price as undervalued, trading below cash balance, and see upside from Arvinas’ diversified early-stage clinical pipeline despite the recent Phase 3 disappointment.
- Positive analyst views (such as H.C. Wainwright) cite ongoing pipeline development and milestones as supportive of a path forward for vepdegestrant and justification for an increased price target.
What's in the News
- Arvinas and Pfizer are seeking to out-license commercialization rights for vepdegestrant to a third party, with a focus on maximizing its commercial potential and possibly developing it in new indications.
- Arvinas is further limiting expenditures on vepdegestrant and reducing its workforce by approximately 15%, mainly in roles related to vepdegestrant commercialization, expecting $4.5 million in related costs.
- The U.S. FDA has accepted the New Drug Application for vepdegestrant, an oral PROTAC ER degrader, granting it Fast Track designation and setting a PDUFA action date for review; NDA is based on positive Phase 3 VERITAC-2 trial data.
- CEO John Houston, Ph.D. has announced his retirement pending the appointment of a new CEO but will remain Chairperson of the Board.
- Arvinas has been added to several key Russell value and small cap indexes, including the Russell 2000 Value, Russell 2500 Value, Russell 3000 Value, and Russell Small Cap Comp Value benchmarks.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Arvinas
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen from $18.44 to $17.44.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Arvinas has significantly fallen from -22.2% per annum to -25.2% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Arvinas has risen from 49.11x to 51.87x.
Disclaimer
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