CTV Partnerships With Disney And Netflix Will Transform Media

Trade Desk’s consensus price target has been revised down from $74.48 to $72.52 amid heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, agency-related headwinds, execution risk on strategic initiatives, and increased valuation scrutiny as revenue growth moderates.

Analyst Commentary

• Increased macroeconomic and agency-related uncertainty is dampening the near-term growth outlook and visibility, leading to concerns about Trade Desk’s ability to reaccelerate top-line growth beyond 20%.
• Disappointment versus elevated buyside expectations and post-earnings management commentary highlighting intensified macro pressures among major brands contributed to downward price target revisions.
• Multiple bearish analysts flagged persistent threats from in-house migration by advertising customers and the risk that current turnaround strategies, such as Kokai, are not materializing in improved performance.
• Valuation concerns have come to the forefront, with calls for Trade Desk to be valued on traditional metrics such as GAAP earnings and free cash flow, rather than growth-driven premiums, due to moderating revenue growth and operating leverage.
• Bullish analysts cited a more favorable tariff outlook, limited expected impact from competitors like Amazon DSP, and the potential for conservative guidance beats as reasons for selectively raising targets.

What's in the News

• OpenAI is building in-house advertising infrastructure for ChatGPT, signaling potential competition for established ad tech platforms like The Trade Desk, AppLovin, Magnite, and Integral Ad Science (ADWEEK, 2025-09-25).
• Walmart ended its exclusive arrangement with The Trade Desk for ad tech services, raising concerns over the loss of a key client and potential revenue impact (The Information, 2025-08-14).
• Acxiom launched 'True Intelligence', a new measurement solution integrating The Trade Desk's Kokai platform and Unified ID 2.0 (UID2), enabling marketers to better assess the incremental impact of digital and CTV campaigns with enhanced privacy and data flexibility (Key Development, 2025-09-23).
• The Trade Desk appointed Alex Kayyal, a technology and investment veteran, as CFO effective August 21, 2025, succeeding Laura Schenkein who will assist with the transition (Key Development, 2025-08-07).
• The Trade Desk announced company bylaw amendments, completed a buyback of 22.7 million shares for $1.54 billion, confirmed Q3 2025 revenue guidance of at least $717 million, and was added to major equity indexes including the S&P 500, S&P Global 1200, and S&P 500 Growth (Key Developments, 2025-07 to 2025-09).

Valuation Changes

Summary of Valuation Changes for Trade Desk

• The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly from $74.48 to $72.52.
• The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Trade Desk has fallen slightly from 17.0% per annum to 16.4% per annum.
• The Net Profit Margin for Trade Desk remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 19.17% to 19.00%.