Update shared on08 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.46%Narrative Update on Dow: Analyst Price Target Revision
Analysts have reduced their price target for Dow to $26 from $30, citing ongoing challenges such as weak earnings prospects, risks to exports due to tariffs, and an anticipated dividend cut.
Analyst Commentary
Recent updates from Street research have highlighted both optimistic and cautious perspectives on Dow's outlook amid challenging market conditions.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts recognize Dow's ongoing efforts to strengthen its cash position, which may provide resilience during volatile market periods.
- The company's proactive approach to liquidity management could support operational stability and help maintain strategic flexibility.
- Despite near-term challenges, there is belief in longer-term recovery potential if global trade conditions improve.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts emphasize weak earnings prospects that continue to weigh on the company’s valuation.
- Export volumes remain at risk due to prevailing tariffs, which presents potential headwinds to revenue growth.
- The anticipated dividend cut signals management’s cautious stance and may dampen income-focused investor sentiment.
- Dow’s progress on addressing current challenges has not yet alleviated concerns about execution and near-term performance.
What's in the News
- Dow launched DOWSIL EG-4175 Silicone Gel, designed for higher voltages and temperatures in electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy applications. The product features self-healing and energy-efficient curing properties (Key Developments).
- Announced a partnership with Gruppo Fiori to advance recycling of polyurethane waste from end-of-life vehicles without disassembly. This supports circular automotive supply chains and regulatory compliance (Key Developments).
- A class action lawsuit has been filed against Dow, alleging the company overstated its ability to handle macroeconomic and tariff headwinds. Recent disappointing financial results and a major dividend cut have contributed to a sharp stock drop (Key Developments).
- Dow's Board of Directors declared a dividend of 35 cents per share, payable September 12, 2025, reflecting the anticipated decrease (Key Developments).
- The company completed no share repurchases in the most recent quarter, maintaining its overall completed buyback at 5.43% of shares outstanding (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate: Lowered slightly from $28.24 to $27.82, reflecting updated market assessments.
- Discount Rate: Remained steady at 9.56%.
- Revenue Growth: Reduced from 0.77% to 0.68%, indicating more conservative sales expectations.
- Net Profit Margin: Increased modestly from 4.05% to 4.07%.
- Future P/E Ratio: Declined slightly from 15.74x to 15.49x, signaling a mild adjustment in forward earnings multiples.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.