Update shared on24 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.44%Dow’s price target was revised downward to $28.24 as analysts cited weak earnings visibility, pressure on commodity chemical profitability, ongoing trade and pricing headwinds, and a dividend cut reflecting heightened balance sheet caution.
Analyst Commentary
- Ongoing weak earnings outlook and reduced profitability in core commodity chemicals.
- Risks to export volumes due to tariffs and unfavorable international trade dynamics.
- Underwhelming seasonal demand and lackluster operating environment persisting into recent quarters.
- Flat to declining pricing trends in key products, reflecting limited pricing power.
- Dividend cut not unexpected, signaling management's need to secure cash and reinforce the balance sheet.
What's in the News
- Dow launched DOWSIL EG-4175 Silicone Gel, targeting high-voltage EV batteries, PV panels, and wind turbines, offering enhanced temperature resistance, vibration absorption, and self-healing properties.
- Dow and Gruppo Fiori advanced a novel process enabling large-scale recycling of polyurethane from end-of-life vehicles without disassembly, supporting circularity and compliance with future regulations.
- Robbins LLP filed a class action alleging Dow overstated its ability to address macroeconomic and tariff challenges; stock dropped after a dividend cut and poor Q2 financial results, including a $0.42 non-GAAP loss per share and 7.3% YoY net sales decline.
- Dow's Board approved the shutdown of key upstream assets in Europe, impacting approximately 800 roles and resulting in charges of $630–$790 million, to optimize regional capacity and margins.
- Dow declared a reduced dividend of $0.35 per share following disappointing financial performance.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Dow
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $28.65 to $28.24.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Dow has significantly fallen from 1.4% per annum to 0.8% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for Dow has significantly risen from 3.33% to 4.05%.
Disclaimer
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