Update shared on09 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.02%Dow’s consensus price target was modestly lowered to $28.65 as analysts cite persistently weak demand, soft pricing, ongoing risks to export volumes, reduced EBITDA forecasts, and the heightened possibility of a dividend cut amid sustained earnings pressure.
Analyst Commentary
- Persistently weak operating environment and soft demand across Dow’s end markets continue to depress pricing and volumes.
- Analysts cite underwhelming seasonal activity and flat-to-declining price actions in commodity chemicals, leading to downward earnings estimate revisions.
- Export volumes remain at risk due to the potential impact of tariffs, further pressuring revenue outlook.
- There is a heightened risk, highlighted by multiple analysts, of a dividend cut in light of sustained anemic earnings levels and recent cash-conservation measures.
- EBITDA forecasts have been significantly reduced for both the near and medium term, with consensus expecting 2026 EBITDA to fall well below prior estimates absent major industry supply rationalization or macroeconomic improvement.
What's in the News
- Dow launched DOWSIL™ EG-4175 Silicone Gel, a high-reliability protective material targeting next-gen electric vehicle and renewable power electronics, offering enhanced dielectric, thermal, and self-healing properties.
- Dow and Gruppo Fiori have advanced a novel process to recover and recycle polyurethane waste from end-of-life vehicles without disassembly, supporting sustainability and regulatory compliance in the automotive sector.
- A class action lawsuit was filed alleging Dow overstated its ability to manage macroeconomic and tariff challenges, with significant missed Q2 earnings, a major dividend cut, and material declines in share price following analyst downgrades and results.
- Dow's Board approved the shutdown of three upstream assets in Europe and certain corporate assets globally, impacting roughly 800 roles, as part of efforts to right-size capacity, optimize margins, and remove high-cost assets—resulting in charges of $630–$790 million.
- Dow announced a reduced dividend of $0.35 per share, following poor Q2 performance and no further progress in the company's previously authorized share buyback program.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Dow
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $28.94 to $28.65.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Dow remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 1.5% per annum to 1.4% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Dow remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 19.16x to 19.01x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.