AnalystConsensusTarget updated the narrative for DECK

Analysts have lowered their price target for Deckers Outdoor by over $12 per share to around $114. They cite concerns over softer second-half guidance, slowing growth in key brands like Hoka and Ugg, and increasing competitive pressures in the running footwear segment.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst reports on Deckers Outdoor present a nuanced view of the company's performance and outlook. While some analysts highlight areas of strength and resilience, others point to ongoing concerns tied to growth and competitive dynamics. The following summarizes both bullish and bearish perspectives:

• Bullish analysts point to better than expected quarterly results, suggesting underlying business strength despite near-term headwinds.
• Price targets have been raised by some, reflecting increased confidence in improved sales and stronger plan attainment for Hoka and Ugg.
• Wholesale and international segments showed robust growth in the most recent quarter, underpinning positive sentiment toward diversified revenue drivers.
• Despite sector pressures, valuation is regarded as attractive by some, with shares described as trading at relatively inexpensive levels for the brand’s growth profile.

• Bearish analysts continue to cite slowing growth for key brands Hoka and Ugg, noting that momentum has softened compared to previous periods.
• Guidance for the second half of the year remains a concern, with expectations for reduced revenue growth and potential pressure on profitability.
• Direct-to-consumer channels have lagged, raising questions about Deckers’ ability to sustain its execution in an increasingly competitive landscape.
• Concerns about consensus estimates being too high persist, while competitive pressures in the core running footwear segment present ongoing challenges to margin expansion and brand positioning.

What's in the News

• Deckers Outdoor completed another share buyback tranche by repurchasing 2,600,000 shares for $282 million. Since 2017, the company has bought back over 46 million shares, representing more than 27% of shares outstanding (Company filing).
• The company issued new guidance for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. It is projecting approximately $5.35 billion in net sales and diluted earnings per share between $6.30 and $6.39 (Company guidance).
• Teva, a Deckers brand, announced its Autumn-Winter 2025 collection. The collection introduces new performance footwear such as the Hurricane Daybreaker family and an updated Tirra Sport sandal, with a focus on adventure and durability (Company announcement).
• Teva will launch a limited-edition collaboration with designer Sean Wotherspoon. This collaboration brings back the Wraptor silhouette and reimagines the Hurricane XLT2 sandal, with a global launch scheduled for August 2025 (Company announcement).
• HOKA unveiled the Mafate 5 with new Rocker Integrity Technology to enhance trail running performance and initiated a UTMB Mont-Blanc inspired Strava challenge for runners (Company announcement).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate has declined from $126.77 per share to $114.36 per share, reflecting a notable decrease of over $12.
• Discount Rate has edged down marginally, moving from 8.45% to 8.45%.
• Consensus Revenue Growth expectations have fallen significantly, from 8.12% previously to 6.89% now.
• Net Profit Margin projection has slipped slightly, decreasing from 16.80% to 16.77%.
• Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio forecast has dropped from 20.50x to 18.20x. This indicates a lower valuation multiple being applied to future earnings.