AnalystConsensusTarget updated the narrative for DECK

The analyst price target for Deckers Outdoor shifted modestly, reflecting a range of revised estimates as analysts weighed improving sales forecasts against concerns over slowing growth and pressure on margins. This has resulted in target valuations that now range from $100 to $150 per share.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research continues to reflect a lively debate over Deckers Outdoor's future performance, with opinions split between optimism on sales momentum and caution around rising competitive pressures and margin headwinds.

• Bullish analysts are raising price targets in response to improving sales forecasts and recent earnings. This signals confidence in near-term execution.
• Some have increased their medium-term EPS estimates, seeing better-than-anticipated sales as a driver for incremental growth in fiscal years 2025 and 2026.
• Updated research models point to halo effects from positive brand updates, particularly around the HOKA brand. This is considered reassuring even if not at peak performance.
• Despite overall market challenges, observed growth in both sales and inventory dollars supports a case for sustained strong retail performance.

• Bearish analysts caution that both key brands, Hoka and Ugg, are showing signs of slowing growth, which may hamper future sales expansion.
• Concerns over elevated competition in the running footwear category and the potential for peak EBIT margins this year could cap further upside.
• There are warnings about softness in direct-to-consumer channels, particularly for Hoka. This could weigh on sentiment and valuation.
• Despite recent stock declines, some believe expectations for Deckers Outdoor remain too high, especially as certain growth segments are viewed as saturated in the U.S. market.

What's in the News

• Teva unveiled its Autumn-Winter 2025 collection, expanding functional performance offerings with new Hurricane Daybreaker models, an updated Tirra Sport, Aventrail family, and the Trailwinder Mid GTX for versatile and cold-weather outdoor activities (Key Developments).
• Teva announced a limited-edition collaboration with designer Sean Wotherspoon, reviving the Wraptor silhouette and introducing a reimagined Hurricane XLT2. The collection launches globally in August 2025 with a preview event in Japan (Key Developments).
• HOKA introduced the Mafate 5 trail shoe featuring Rocker Integrity Technology, enhanced durability, and an ankle gaiter integration system. The launch is also being marked with a nationwide Strava challenge (Key Developments).
• Deckers Outdoor repurchased 1,864,765 shares for $203.98 million between April and July 2025, completing 25.79% of the buyback program announced in 2017 (Key Developments).
• For the quarter ending September 30, 2025, Deckers Outdoor provided new guidance, expecting net sales of $1.38 to $1.42 billion and diluted earnings per share between $1.50 and $1.55 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Decreased modestly from $129.28 to $126.77 per share, reflecting a slightly lower intrinsic valuation.
• Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 8.34% to 8.45%, suggesting analysts are applying a marginally higher risk or cost of capital to Deckers Outdoor.
• Revenue Growth: Lowered from 8.52% to 8.12%, indicating tempered expectations for top-line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin: Eased from 17.42% to 16.80%, pointing to a minor softening in anticipated profitability.
• Future P/E: Rose from 19.89x to 20.50x, indicating a higher price-to-earnings multiple forecast despite slight declines in other metrics.