Kumba Iron Ore Limited's (JSE:KIO) Popularity With Investors Is Under Threat From Overpricing
Jun 04
South African (JSE) Market Analysis & Valuation
UpdatedJun 04, 2024
DataAggregated Company Financials
Companies209
- 7D-2.2%
- 3M3.6%
- 1Y2.3%
- YTD-2.6%
Over the last 7 days, the market has dropped 2.2%, driven by a decline of 7.6% in the Materials sector. Overall the market has been flat in the last year. Looking forward, earnings are forecast to grow by 17% annually.
Market Valuation and Performance
Has the South African Market valuation changed over the past few years?
| Date | Market Cap | Revenue | Earnings | PE | Absolute PE | PS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 04 Jun 2024 | R5.6t | R5.2t | R431.9b | 8.7x | 12.9x | 1.1x |
| Thu, 02 May 2024 | R5.5t | R5.3t | R433.5b | 8.5x | 12.7x | 1x |
| Sat, 30 Mar 2024 | R5.5t | R5.3t | R433.2b | 8.7x | 12.6x | 1x |
| Mon, 26 Feb 2024 | R5.5t | R5.3t | R522.1b | 9.1x | 10.6x | 1x |
| Wed, 24 Jan 2024 | R5.6t | R5.5t | R543.5b | 9.4x | 10.3x | 1x |
| Fri, 22 Dec 2023 | R5.8t | R5.4t | R539.1b | 9.2x | 10.7x | 1.1x |
| Sun, 19 Nov 2023 | R5.6t | R5.4t | R538.6b | 9x | 10.3x | 1x |
| Tue, 17 Oct 2023 | R5.5t | R5.4t | R545.8b | 9x | 10.1x | 1x |
| Thu, 14 Sep 2023 | R5.7t | R5.5t | R552.8b | 8.8x | 10.3x | 1x |
| Sat, 12 Aug 2023 | R6.0t | R5.4t | R631.3b | 8.4x | 9.5x | 1.1x |
| Mon, 10 Jul 2023 | R5.8t | R5.4t | R660.7b | 8.5x | 8.7x | 1.1x |
| Wed, 07 Jun 2023 | R5.9t | R5.4t | R655.6b | 8.2x | 9x | 1.1x |
| Fri, 05 May 2023 | R6.0t | R5.3t | R668.9b | 8.3x | 9x | 1.1x |
| Sun, 02 Apr 2023 | R6.0t | R5.3t | R646.5b | 8.2x | 9.3x | 1.1x |
| Tue, 28 Feb 2023 | R6.1t | R5.3t | R640.3b | 8.6x | 9.6x | 1.2x |
| Thu, 26 Jan 2023 | R6.4t | R5.2t | R658.4b | 8.3x | 9.7x | 1.2x |
| Sat, 24 Dec 2022 | R6.0t | R5.2t | R656.9b | 8.4x | 9.2x | 1.2x |
| Mon, 21 Nov 2022 | R6.1t | R5.2t | R837.5b | 8.4x | 7.3x | 1.2x |
| Wed, 19 Oct 2022 | R5.7t | R5.2t | R840.3b | 8.3x | 6.8x | 1.1x |
| Fri, 16 Sep 2022 | R5.8t | R5.1t | R818.7b | 8.5x | 7.1x | 1.1x |
| Sun, 14 Aug 2022 | R6.1t | R5.2t | R754.3b | 8.7x | 8.1x | 1.2x |
| Tue, 12 Jul 2022 | R5.9t | R5.3t | R789.9b | 8.6x | 7.5x | 1.1x |
| Thu, 09 Jun 2022 | R6.4t | R5.2t | R788.3b | 9.1x | 8.1x | 1.2x |
| Sat, 07 May 2022 | R6.3t | R5.2t | R786.8b | 9.4x | 8x | 1.2x |
| Mon, 04 Apr 2022 | R7.3t | R5.2t | R763.3b | 10.2x | 9.5x | 1.4x |
| Wed, 02 Mar 2022 | R7.4t | R5.2t | R766.6b | 10.7x | 9.7x | 1.4x |
| Fri, 28 Jan 2022 | R6.9t | R5.1t | R765.3b | 10.6x | 9.1x | 1.4x |
| Sun, 26 Dec 2021 | R6.8t | R5.1t | R765.4b | 10.6x | 8.8x | 1.3x |
| Tue, 23 Nov 2021 | R6.7t | R5.1t | R612.3b | 10.4x | 10.9x | 1.3x |
| Thu, 21 Oct 2021 | R6.8t | R5.0t | R577.8b | 11.4x | 11.7x | 1.3x |
| Sat, 18 Sep 2021 | R6.3t | R5.0t | R535.2b | 11.7x | 11.8x | 1.3x |
| Mon, 16 Aug 2021 | R6.6t | R4.9t | R513.3b | 11.7x | 12.9x | 1.4x |
Price to Earnings Ratio
12.7x
Current Market PE
- Investors are optimistic on the South African market, and appear confident in strong long term growth rates.
- The market is trading at a PE ratio of 12.9x which is higher than its 3-year average PE of 9.7x.
Past Earnings Growth
- The earnings for South African listed companies have declined 5.5% per year over the last three years.
- Meanwhile revenues for these companies have grown 2.6% per year.
- This means that although more sales are being generated, either the cost of doing business or the level of investment back into businesses has increased, which has decreased profits.
Sector Trends
Which sectors have driven the changes within the South African Market?
| ZA Market | -2.18% | |
| Healthcare | 2.78% | |
| Telecom | 0.70% | |
| Real Estate | 0.53% | |
| Utilities | 0% | |
| Financials | -0.077% | |
| Tech | -0.45% | |
| Industrials | -0.74% | |
| Consumer Staples | -0.99% | |
| Energy | -2.78% | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -3.08% | |
| Materials | -7.61% | |
Sector PE
- Investors favour the Materials sector the most for future growth, which is trading above its 3-year average PE ratio of 12.5x.
- The market's confidence is likely because analysts are expecting annual earnings growth of 32.1% which is higher than its past year's earnings decline of 5.9% per year.
- The Energy sector is the least preferred by investors for future growth, which is trading close to its 3-year average of 4.0x.
Forecasted Growth
- Analysts are most optimistic on the Materials sector, expecting annual earnings growth of 32% over the next 5 years.
- This is better than its past earnings decline of 5.9% per year.
- In contrast, the Energy sector is expected to see its earnings decline by 14% per year over the next few years.
Top Stock Gainers and Losers
Which companies have driven the market over the last 7 days?
| Company | Last Price | 7D | 1Y | Valuation | Sector | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VOD Vodacom Group | R96.27 | 1.9% +R3.4b | -14.7% | PE11.4x | Telecom | |
| INL Investec Group | R125.86 | 2.8% +R3.1b | 19.0% | PE7.9x | Financials | |
| SBK Standard Bank Group | R185.82 | 0.9% +R2.7b | 17.5% | PB1.2x | Financials | |
| APN Aspen Pharmacare Holdings | R233.11 | 2.6% +R2.6b | 32.8% | PE21.3x | Healthcare | |
| ABG Absa Group | R154.95 | 1.3% +R1.7b | -2.1% | PB0.8x | Financials |
