Stock Analysis

Festi hf's (ICE:FESTI) 13% CAGR outpaced the company's earnings growth over the same five-year period

ICSE:FESTI
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When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, the Festi hf. (ICE:FESTI) share price is up 72% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 19% (ignoring dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 12% , including dividends .

Since the stock has added Kr6.3b to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

View our latest analysis for Festi hf

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over half a decade, Festi hf managed to grow its earnings per share at 5.5% a year. This EPS growth is lower than the 11% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
ICSE:FESTI Earnings Per Share Growth December 23rd 2023

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Festi hf's TSR for the last 5 years was 82%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Festi hf has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 12% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 13% a year, is even better. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Festi hf you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Icelandic exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Festi hf is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.