Update shared on14 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.37%Analysts have modestly raised Dell's price target to $148.43, citing strong AI server demand and healthy enterprise spending despite ongoing margin pressures and PC market weakness.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts highlight significant upside potential in AI server revenue, citing robust demand from hyperscale customers and upwardly revised forecasts for FY26 and beyond.
- Margin headwinds persist due to the rapid mix shift toward lower margin AI server shipments, with gross margin and Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) margin pressures seen as ongoing constraints.
- Some analysts indicate revenue growth is healthy, underpinned by continued enterprise hardware spending and upside in short-term supply chain activity, though offset by softness in consumer and PC segments.
- Management transitions, such as the abrupt CFO departure, are not viewed as performance related and stable interim leadership provides continuity and reduces perceived risk.
- Skepticism remains regarding potential for a PC refresh cycle, and there are concerns about Dell’s fair valuation given balancing factors of strong FCF/capital return profile versus margin pressure.
What's in the News
- Dell was implicated alongside other major U.S. tech firms in enabling China's digital surveillance state, with a 2019 promotion of an AI-powered laptop featuring "all-race recognition" for Chinese police, according to an Associated Press investigation (AP, 2025-09-10).
- U.S. authorities have used tracking devices in AI server shipments to prevent illegal diversion to China, including shipments from Dell, as reported by Reuters (Reuters, 2025-08-13).
- Dell Technologies is among S&P 1500 companies now led by "boomerang CEOs," reflecting a broader trend of former CEOs returning to helm major corporations (Financial Times, 2025-07-28).
- A hacker group breached Dell's product demonstration platform (Customer Solution Centers), which is intentionally segregated from customer and core company networks, and is now attempting to extort the company (BleepingComputer, 2025-07-21).
- The demonstration platform breach did not compromise core Dell networks or customer and partner systems, according to Dell's statement (BleepingComputer, 2025-07-21).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Dell Technologies
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $146.43 to $148.43.
- The Future P/E for Dell Technologies has fallen slightly from 15.87x to 15.40x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Dell Technologies remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 6.4% per annum to 6.5% per annum.
Disclaimer
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