Update shared on 19 Dec 2025
Fair value Increased 0.53%Analysts have slightly raised their price target on Canaan to reflect a modest uptick in fair value to approximately $2.91, supported by expectations of stronger long term earnings multiples, despite slightly softer forecasts for revenue growth and profit margins.
What's in the News
- Canaan launched its next generation Avalon A16 series bitcoin mining machines, including the A16XP model delivering 300 TH/s at 12.8 J/TH, reinforcing its vertically integrated bitcoin infrastructure strategy and expanding global pre orders and shipments from production centers across North America, East Asia, and Southeast Asia (company announcement).
- The company unveiled a pilot gas to computing mining project in Calgary, Alberta, with Aurora AZ Energy, deploying about 2.5 MW of Avalon A15 Pro capacity at natural gas wellheads to convert stranded or flared gas into power and potentially cut 12,000 to 14,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent emissions annually (company announcement).
- Canaan secured a major purchase order from a U.S. based bitcoin miner for more than 50,000 Avalon A15 Pro machines, the company’s largest order in three years, underscoring institutional demand for its high efficiency mining hardware (company announcement).
- The company entered a strategic hosting agreement with Soluna Holdings to deploy 20 MW of Avalon A15 XP bitcoin miners at a wind powered site in Texas, further expanding Canaan’s North American mining footprint and renewable based capacity (company announcement).
- Canaan announced a new share repurchase program of up to $30 million in ADSs and or Class A shares over 12 months starting December 12, 2025, funded from existing cash, following completion of a prior $4.9 million buyback tranche covering 1.43% of shares (company announcements).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: risen slightly from about $2.89 to $2.91 per share. This implies a modest upward revision in long term intrinsic value.
- Discount Rate: increased marginally from approximately 7.95% to 7.99%. This indicates a slightly higher perceived risk or required return.
- Revenue Growth: edged down from roughly 40.75% to 39.98%. This reflects a small tempering of top line expansion expectations.
- Net Profit Margin: declined moderately from around 8.53% to 7.72%. This signals more conservative assumptions on future profitability.
- Future P/E: risen meaningfully from about 24.9x to 28.2x. This suggests higher expected earnings multiples supporting the fair value increase.
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