Update shared on 05 Dec 2025
Fair value Decreased 2.80%Analysts have nudged their price target for Canaan slightly lower to approximately $2.89 per share from about $2.98, as stronger projected revenue growth and profit margins are offset by a meaningfully compressed expected future P E multiple.
What's in the News
- Canaan issued fourth quarter 2025 revenue guidance of USD 175 million to USD 205 million, signaling expectations for solid near term demand despite market volatility (company guidance).
- The company launched its next generation Avalon A16 series miners, including the A16XP model delivering 300 TH/s at 12.8 J/TH. This positions the product among the most competitive bitcoin mining machines globally (product announcement).
- Canaan completed multiple follow on equity offerings totaling roughly USD 80 million in American Depositary Shares, adding growth capital while modestly diluting existing shareholders (equity offering filings and completions).
- A new 4.5 megawatt hydro cooled Avalon A1566HA deployment in Japan will support real time grid balancing and energy efficiency optimization. This highlights Canaan's role at the intersection of AI infrastructure, renewable energy, and blockchain computing (client announcement).
- The company began a gas to computing pilot project in Calgary with Aurora AZ Energy, converting stranded natural gas into low cost power for Avalon A15 Pro miners and targeting meaningful reductions in CO2 equivalent emissions (product and infrastructure announcement).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: nudged lower from about $2.98 to roughly $2.89 per share, reflecting a modest reduction in intrinsic value estimates.
- Discount Rate: effectively unchanged, easing only slightly from approximately 7.95 percent to 7.95 percent, signaling a stable perceived risk profile.
- Revenue Growth: revised upward from around 34.3 percent to about 40.7 percent, indicating meaningfully stronger top line expansion expectations.
- Net Profit Margin: increased significantly from roughly 4.0 percent to about 8.5 percent, pointing to improved profitability assumptions.
- Future P/E: reduced sharply from roughly 57.6x to about 24.9x, implying a substantially lower valuation multiple applied to future earnings.
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