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MNSO: Future Profitability Will Benefit From Expanding Experiential Retail Footprint

Global Retail Expansion And Premium IP Will Unlock Opportunity

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MNSO
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 01 Dec 2024

Update shared on 11 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 0.14%
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Analysts have nudged their price target on MINISO Group Holding slightly higher to approximately $26.87 per share, from about $26.83. They cite marginally improved profit margin expectations and a modest reduction in the assumed discount rate, which more than offset slightly softer projected revenue growth and a marginally lower future P/E multiple.

What's in the News

  • Opened Italy's first dedicated collectible toy store on Milan's Corso Buenos Aires, strengthening its position among Gen Z consumers and expanding to nearly 70 stores nationwide and 337 across Europe by September 2025 (company announcement).
  • Launched its largest German store on Dusseldorf's Flinger Strasse with about 3,000 SKUs and immersive IP-themed zones, reinforcing MINISO's experiential retail strategy in a prime shopping district (company announcement).
  • Debuted Australia's first and largest MINISO LAND at Westfield Chatswood in Sydney, offering over 7,000 SKUs with more than 70 percent IP collaborations and positioning the store as a new retail landmark (company announcement).
  • Issued guidance for fourth quarter 2025 revenue growth of 25 to 30 percent and full year 2025 revenue growth of 25 percent, with operating profit expected between RMB 3.65 billion and RMB 3.85 billion (company guidance).
  • Scheduled a board meeting on November 21, 2025 to review and approve unaudited financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025 (company filing).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has risen slightly to approximately $26.87 per share, up from about $26.83.
  • The discount rate has fallen marginally to roughly 9.87 percent, from about 9.92 percent, reflecting a slightly lower perceived risk profile.
  • The revenue growth assumption has edged down slightly to around 18.05 percent, from about 18.19 percent.
  • The net profit margin assumption has increased modestly to roughly 15.65 percent, from about 15.59 percent.
  • The future P/E multiple has decreased slightly to about 14.64 times, from roughly 14.67 times.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.