Update shared on 19 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.10%MercadoLibre's analyst price target has moved modestly to $2,861.96 from $2,893.88, as analysts weigh ongoing competitive pressures, slight profit margin compression, and recent de-risking in Argentina.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research reflects a nuanced view of MercadoLibre's prospects, with analysts highlighting both the opportunities and ongoing risks impacting its valuation and growth outlook.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts note upward price target revisions, attributing them to de-risking in Argentina following recent elections. This is seen as easing macroeconomic uncertainty.
- Despite recent quarter margin compression, there is confidence that MercadoLibre has multiple levers to sustain strong top-line and EBIT growth into 2026 as strategic investments begin yielding returns.
- Analysts cite fixed cost leverage, share gains, and effective investment in logistics and new programs as key factors supporting long-term margin and revenue expansion.
- MercadoLibre remains among top picks for future growth. Incremental headwinds are viewed as manageable relative to the company’s structural advantages in core markets.
- Bearish analysts caution that consensus estimates may not fully reflect the impact of growing competition in key markets, particularly Brazilian e-commerce. This competition is expected to pressure future performance.
- Rising competitive intensity and recent income estimate cuts are flagged as headwinds, prompting some price target reductions despite the company’s robust long-term potential.
- Ongoing margin pressures, including the effects of a first-party mix shift and gross margin compression from new programs like free shipping, are cited as risks to near-term profitability.
- Some maintain a neutral outlook, highlighting that the growth outlook remains contingent on successful execution in a rapidly evolving market landscape.
What's in the News
- Amazon has acquired a stake in Colombian delivery company Rappi via a $25 million convertible note. This move is seen as intensifying the competitive landscape for MercadoLibre in Latin American e-commerce (Bloomberg).
- MercadoLibre launched a new video-format episode of its Inside MercadoLibre podcast on Spotify and YouTube. The episode features discussions about seller tools, promotional campaigns, social media engagement, and Mercado Ads initiatives.
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased modestly to $2,861.96 from $2,893.88.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly, now at 10.92% compared to 10.74% previously.
- Revenue Growth projections have fallen marginally, moving from 24.81% to 24.51%.
- Net Profit Margin expectations have declined, now estimated at 10.11% compared to 10.85% earlier.
- Future P/E ratio forecast has edged down, currently at 38.21x compared to the previous value of 38.67x.
Disclaimer
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