Update shared on03 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.67%Analysts have raised MercadoLibre’s price target to $2,876, reflecting confidence in its aggressive push into Brazil’s low-ASP e-commerce segment despite rising competition, driven by strong Q2 execution and potential for share gains among value-focused consumers.
Analyst Commentary
- MercadoLibre is aggressively targeting the lower average selling price (ASP) segment in Brazil, including a significant lowering of the free shipping threshold and large-scale promotional campaigns, to directly compete with Shopee, Temu, and TikTok Shop.
- Bullish analysts view the company's push into the low-ASP market as an "impressive" and systemic move to gain market share from competitors focused on value-conscious consumers.
- Despite heightened competition following a relatively calm period in Brazil, analyst estimates for MercadoLibre have been revised higher post strong Q2 results, reflecting confidence in the company's ability to execute in a tougher environment.
- There are expectations that MercadoLibre may take time to build sufficient inventory and traction in lower-priced segments, indicating that while aggressive, sustained growth in this new segment will require further execution.
- The competitive response from Shopee in Brazil remains minimal so far, but medium-term risks exist as MercadoLibre intensifies its efforts in the value segment; overall, the balance of risk-reward has led most analysts to maintain Neutral or Buy ratings with slight upward adjustments in price targets.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for MercadoLibre
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $2846 to $2876.
- The Future P/E for MercadoLibre has risen from 36.75x to 38.63x.
- The Net Profit Margin for MercadoLibre has fallen slightly from 11.36% to 10.89%.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.