The analyst price target for Neurocrine Biosciences has been raised from approximately $170 to $175 per share. This reflects analyst optimism about the company’s strong recent earnings, expanded sales efforts, and ongoing commercial and pipeline momentum.

Analyst Commentary

Following Neurocrine Biosciences’ latest quarterly results and updated guidance, analysts have shared a mix of optimistic and cautious perspectives that are shaping revised price targets and investment outlooks for the company.

• Bullish analysts cite continued strong financial performance, including earnings per share that exceeded market expectations. This is a primary driver for increasing price targets.
• The company’s commercial execution remains a key point of confidence. Expanding sales efforts are expected to support further growth in flagship products like Ingrezza and Crenessity.
• Analysts project that Neurocrine’s pipeline, particularly late-stage candidates in major depressive disorder and schizophrenia, positions the company well for continued long-term growth and shareholder value creation.
• Some research notes downplay concerns about Medicare price negotiations impacting future revenues. These notes suggest Ingrezza may have stronger than anticipated earnings potential even under new pricing frameworks.

• Bearish analysts highlight near-term risks associated with potential pricing pressures, particularly from legislative changes expected to affect competitive products, which could spill over to Neurocrine’s portfolio.
• There are notes of caution regarding increased investment in commercial infrastructure. While this supports growth, it may weigh on short-term margins and raise investor concerns if not matched by accelerated sales.
• Regulatory scrutiny, including a civil investigative demand from the Department of Justice, is flagged as a possible overhang for shares and a contributor to recent volatility.
• While product growth remains strong, analysts continue to monitor quarterly dynamics and price trends, particularly for new launches, as potential points of execution risk.

What's in the News

• New data from the open-label KINECT-HD2 study show sustained safety and efficacy of INGREZZA treatment in Huntington's disease over three years. The results highlight strong improvements in chorea severity and well-tolerated long-term use (Company announcement).
• Additional post-hoc analyses from the KINECT-PRO and KINECT 4 studies indicate high rates of symptomatic remission and substantial improvements in tardive dyskinesia with once-daily INGREZZA, reinforcing its role as a leading treatment option (Company announcements).
• Neurocrine Biosciences presented positive results from the SAVITRI Phase 2 trial, demonstrating significant improvements in depression severity for adults with major depressive disorder treated with osavampator, a potential first-in-class AMPA-PAM (Company announcement).
• Company buyback update: Neurocrine completed the repurchase of approximately 1.51% of shares for $167.73 million as part of its ongoing share repurchase program (Company statement).
• Recent presentations at major scientific congresses continue to showcase the breadth of Neurocrine’s pipeline and the durability of benefits for patients across central nervous system disorders (Company announcements).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: The updated fair value for Neurocrine Biosciences has risen slightly from $169.95 to $174.81 per share.
• Discount Rate: The discount rate has decreased marginally from 6.89% to 6.87%. This reflects a modest reduction in perceived risk.
• Revenue Growth: Projected revenue growth has edged down, moving from 14.15% to 14.08%.
• Net Profit Margin: The company’s forecasted profit margin has increased from 24.68% to 26.08%.
• Future P/E: The anticipated future price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has decreased from 20.95x to 19.52x.