Analysts have raised their price target for Neurocrine Biosciences from $168.25 to $169.95. They cite stronger revenue outlooks for key products and supportive recent clinical trial data as the main reasons for this adjustment.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research from major financial institutions reflects a largely optimistic outlook on Neurocrine Biosciences, with several upward price target revisions and continued conviction in the company’s growth trajectory. Analysts highlight meaningful drivers for both valuation expansion and potential risks that could affect execution over the longer term.

Bullish Takeaways

• Upward price target revisions suggest confidence in Neurocrine’s revenue growth, supported by the continued launch success of key products like Crenessity and robust clinical data outcomes.
• Positive clinical trial results for osavampator in major depressive disorder are viewed as a possible catalyst for further upside, signaling promising pipeline potential and future market expansion.
• Analysts anticipate stronger long-term revenue opportunities for Ingrezza. New analysis indicates that concerns around Medicare price negotiations may be overstated according to current frameworks.
• Outperformance in recent quarterly results reinforces the company’s execution capabilities and operational momentum, providing support for the recent price target increases.

Bearish Takeaways

• Investor concerns remain around broader Medicare price negotiations, particularly due to expected read-throughs from competitors’ drugs, which could influence pricing power in future periods.
• Bears maintain caution over pipeline execution risks, as late-stage assets like osavampator still face the hurdles of commercial adoption and regulatory review before contributing meaningfully to revenue.
• Ongoing competitive dynamics in the neurological therapeutics space could present headwinds to sustained growth, especially as rival therapies advance in parallel indications.

What's in the News

• New post-hoc analysis from the KINECT 4 study shows 48 weeks of continuous INGREZZA treatment led to meaningful improvements in tardive dyskinesia symptoms. (Company Announcement)
• Three-year data from the KINECT-HD2 study demonstrate the long-term safety and sustained efficacy of INGREZZA in treating chorea in adults with Huntington's disease. (Company Announcement)
• Phase 2 SAVITRI study results reveal significant and clinically meaningful improvement in depression severity with investigational osavampator for adults with major depressive disorder who have an inadequate response to current treatments. (Company Announcement)
• Neurocrine Biosciences completed a share buyback, repurchasing 1,504,500 shares for $167.73 million as of June 30, 2025. (Company Announcement)
• Post-hoc analysis from KINECT-PRO reports high rates of symptomatic remission and improvements in quality of life for patients with tardive dyskinesia treated with INGREZZA. (Company Announcement)

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, increasing from $168.25 to $169.95 per share.
• The Discount Rate increased modestly from 6.78% to 6.89%.
• The Revenue Growth projection fell modestly, down from 14.64% to 14.15%.
• The Net Profit Margin forecast declined from 25.82% to 24.68%.
• The Future P/E Ratio estimate has risen from 19.51x to 20.95x.