Update shared on08 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.41%Exelixis’ consensus price target saw a marginal decrease to $44.06 as enthusiasm for positive Phase 3 colorectal cancer trial results and potential new revenue from zanzalintinib was offset by revenue model reductions from the discontinuation of head and neck cancer development and ongoing concerns about long-term growth beyond the Cabometyx 2031 patent expiry.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts raised price targets due to positive topline results from the STELLAR-303 Phase 3 trial, where zanzalintinib in combination with atezolizumab showed a statistically significant improvement in overall survival in metastatic colorectal cancer, paving the way for potential regulatory approval.
- Multiple analysts forecast potential for over $1B in peak sales for zanzalintinib in the third-line colorectal cancer setting if efficacy is confirmed in further studies.
- Some analysts remain cautious, noting limited detail available from the topline data and citing the need for more information to determine zanzalintinib's competitive positioning and true peak sales opportunity in colorectal cancer.
- Bearish analysts lowered near-term price targets due to Exelixis discontinuing further advancement of STELLAR-305 in head and neck cancer, removing this indication and its expected future revenue from their models.
- Concerns regarding valuation and the long-term revenue risk posed by the anticipated 2031 Cabometyx patent cliff led to more cautious outlooks, with some analysts awaiting demonstration of additional life cycle management successes to offset future losses.
What's in the News
- Exelixis will not proceed into the Phase 3 portion of the STELLAR-305 study in head and neck cancer, leading Morgan Stanley to lower its price target to $46 from $48 and remove the SCCHN indication from its model (Morgan Stanley, 2025-07-29).
- Barclays raised its price target on Exelixis to $40 from $29, reflecting a higher probability of success in colorectal cancer (Barclays, 2025-07-10).
- Exelixis announced positive topline Phase 3 results from the STELLAR-303 trial, where zanzalintinib with atezolizumab demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in overall survival versus regorafenib in previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer, with no new safety signals identified; the trial will continue for further analysis (Key Developments, 2025-06-22).
- The company reaffirmed 2025 earnings guidance, projecting total revenue between $2.25 billion and $2.35 billion and net product revenues between $2.05 billion and $2.15 billion (Key Developments, 2025-07-28).
- Exelixis completed share repurchases totaling approximately $796 million under two buyback programs, retiring over 14.3 million shares (5.06% outstanding) from the August 2024 program and 7.4 million shares (2.68% outstanding) from the February 2025 program (Key Developments, 2025-07-28).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Exelixis
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $44.68 to $44.06.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Exelixis remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 11.9% per annum to 11.7% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for Exelixis remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 37.00% to 36.73%.
Disclaimer
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