Update shared on29 Jul 2025
Fair value Increased 9.95%Exelixis’ consensus price target has risen to $46.05, primarily driven by positive Phase 3 STELLAR-303 results for zanzalintinib, which boost expectations for regulatory approval and over $1B peak sales potential, while some analysts remain cautious on valuation and Cabometyx’s long-term outlook.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite positive topline results from the STELLAR-303 Phase 3 trial, where zanzalintinib (Zanza) in combination with atezolizumab demonstrated statistically significant improvement in overall survival versus comparator regimens in non-microsatellite instability-high metastatic colorectal cancer.
- Several bullish analysts project that the STELLAR-303 success paves the way for Zanza's first regulatory approval, underpinning expectations for over $1B in peak sales potential in the third-line colorectal cancer setting, assuming consistent efficacy with earlier studies.
- Some bullish analysts are increasing their model-predicted probability of success for Exelixis’ colorectal cancer indication, reflecting the robust Phase 3 results and de-risking of the Zanza pipeline.
- Bearish analysts are concerned about Exelixis' valuation at current share price levels, seeing branded Cabometyx cash flows as fairly priced ahead of the anticipated 2031 patent cliff, and are holding back further upside calls pending evidence of additional life cycle success beyond Cabometyx.
- Neutral analysts acknowledge the significance of the STELLAR-303 win but highlight the need for more detailed data to determine zanzalintinib’s competitive positioning, long-term peak sales, and differentiation before taking a more constructive view.
What's in the News
- Barclays raised its price target on Exelixis to $40 from $29, reflecting a higher probability of success for zanzalintinib in colorectal cancer (Barclays, 2025-07-10).
- Exelixis announced positive topline results from the STELLAR-303 phase 3 trial, with zanzalintinib plus atezolizumab significantly improving overall survival in previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer; no new safety signals were observed (Key Developments, 2025-06-22).
- Results from the STELLAR-002 trial expansion cohort indicated efficacy of zanzalintinib in combination with either nivolumab or nivolumab/relatlimab in previously untreated advanced clear cell renal cell carcinoma, with data presented at the 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting (Key Developments, 2025-05-22).
- Exelixis and Invenra initiated a first-in-human Phase 1 clinical study of XB628, a bispecific antibody NK cell engager, in advanced or metastatic solid tumors (Key Developments, 2025-05-13).
- Exelixis completed a $500 million buyback, repurchasing over 14.3 million shares (5.06% of shares outstanding), and raised fiscal 2025 revenue guidance to $2.25–$2.35 billion, up from prior guidance (Key Developments, 2025-07-28 & 2025-05-13).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Exelixis
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has significantly risen from $40.69 to $46.05.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Exelixis has significantly risen from 9.7% per annum to 10.9% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Exelixis has risen slightly from 11.80x to 12.28x.
Disclaimer
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