Update shared on 07 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 12%Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for Vivid Seats from $26.33 to $23.11. They cite a more conservative revenue outlook and ongoing competitive pressures in the ticketing marketplace as the main reasons for this adjustment.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst updates reflect a range of perspectives on Vivid Seats’ valuation, performance, and growth outlook. The following summarizes key positive and negative factors cited by market observers:
Bullish Takeaways- Management’s initial 2026 outlook projects gross order value (GOV) between $2.2 billion and $2.6 billion. This signals confidence in the platform’s mid-term growth potential despite recent headwinds.
- Strategic adjustments in response to marketplace challenges may help Vivid Seats stabilize its market share over time and adapt to evolving industry dynamics.
- Ongoing investments in technology and customer experience are seen as foundational for future revenue expansion and differentiation within the competitive ticketing sector.
- Persistent competitive pressure has negatively impacted recent quarterly metrics, with a 29% contraction in GOV year-over-year.
- Revised projections for Q4 show a 12% decrease in GOV and a 10% reduction in revenue estimates. These reflect lower take rates and intensified marketplace competition.
- The midpoint of management’s 2026 GOV outlook remains well below previous Street estimates. This signals tempered expectations for long-term growth and profitability.
- Current valuation adjustments point to ongoing skepticism regarding the company’s ability to rebound and achieve targets amid a challenging market environment.
What's in the News
- Lawrence Fey has been appointed as Chief Executive Officer of Vivid Seats, succeeding Stanley Chia in a Board-approved leadership transition scheduled for November 3, 2025. (Key Developments)
- Ted Pickus, previously Chief Accounting Officer, has been named Interim Chief Financial Officer while a search for a permanent CFO takes place. (Key Developments)
- Vivid Seats announced a multi-year partnership with the Chicago Bears, becoming the Official Fan Experience Partner and launching exclusive fan experiences at Soldier Field, which include the Vivid Seats Skydeck. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has decreased from $26.33 to $23.11. This reflects a more cautious outlook.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 12.32% to 12.5%, indicating increased perceived risk.
- Revenue Growth forecast has dropped further from -1.88% to -2.58%, pointing to steeper expected declines.
- Net Profit Margin has edged up marginally from 9.44% to 9.52%, suggesting a slight improvement in profitability expectations.
- Future P/E Ratio has increased from 5.43x to 7.55x, which is indicative of valuation adjustments and changing growth assumptions.
Disclaimer
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