Update shared on20 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.19%Alphabet’s consensus price target increased modestly from $231.48 to $234.23 as analysts cite relief from antitrust overhangs, strong AI and cloud momentum, and resilient search monetization—partially offset by valuation concerns following recent share gains.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite Google's favorable antitrust court ruling as removing key regulatory overhangs, preserving core distribution agreements, and largely ruling out severe structural remedies, supporting higher price targets and potential multiple expansion.
- Outperformance across Alphabet’s AI, cloud, and YouTube businesses, with continued leadership in AI technology, strong demand for TPUs, and monetization advancements in Search, are driving optimism for further growth and earnings upside.
- Alphabet’s partnerships and potential endorsements—such as possible AI integration deals with Apple and collaborations with PayPal—underscore Google's ability to modularize and distribute AI models, reinforcing its ecosystem and competitive moat.
- Despite modest search share loss to ChatGPT, bullish analysts find Google’s dominance in commercial-intent searches intact, with AI integration offering new monetization opportunities and resilience in core revenue streams.
- Some bearish analysts flag elevated valuation following Alphabet’s rally as a reason for rating downgrades, even as positive judicial outcomes and operational trends limit fundamental downside risk.
What's in the News
- China has dropped its antitrust probe into Google's Android dominance amid ongoing U.S.-China trade talks, shifting regulatory focus toward Nvidia as leverage against the U.S. (Financial Times)
- Alphabet reached a $3 trillion market cap after a favorable antitrust ruling, joining Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia as the only companies to cross this threshold. (CNBC)
- The FTC is investigating Google's advertising practices for potentially misleading advertisers and improper disclosure of terms and pricing; an EU antitrust fine related to adtech is also pending. (Bloomberg, Reuters)
- Google continues to expand its AI and cloud businesses, with major new contracts including a $10B cloud deal with Meta and a $1B+ deal with ServiceNow, alongside plans for broader government AI tool offerings. (CNBC, Bloomberg)
- Alphabet faces ongoing legal, regulatory, and labor challenges, including lawsuits over AI use of news content (WSJ), U.S. and Australian antitrust cases, significant layoffs of AI contractors (Wired), and new digital market regulations in the U.K. and EU. (WSJ, ABC, Bloomberg, Washington Examiner)
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Alphabet
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $231.48 to $234.23.
- The Future P/E for Alphabet remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 22.90x to 23.07x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Alphabet remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 11.3% per annum to 11.4% per annum.
Disclaimer
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