Analysts have lowered their price target for LyondellBasell Industries by $1 to $58. This change reflects ongoing headwinds from weak demand and inventory surpluses in the commodity chemicals sector.
Analyst Commentary
Analyst sentiment on LyondellBasell Industries remains divided as recent street research reflects ongoing market challenges and selective optimism about recovery potential.
Bullish Takeaways
- Some bullish analysts have modestly increased their price targets on LyondellBasell, supported by recent market multiple recovery within the chemicals and packaging sector.
- The updated targets acknowledge the company's ability to maintain stability, even amid uncertainty, and its defensive characteristics within the peer group.
- Specialty and defensive segments are seen as more resilient, with expectations that certain market factors, such as a pause in tariffs, may have temporarily boosted demand ahead of earnings periods.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts continue to lower price targets, citing persistent weak seasonal demand and a surplus in inventory, both of which weigh on near-term earnings expectations.
- Several firms have reduced their EBITDA forecasts for the upcoming quarters by as much as 12 percent, reflecting cautious expectations for LyondellBasell's growth trajectory.
- The company, along with its commodity peers, faces an ongoing struggle in a challenging environment with elevated supply and subdued end-market demand. This is pressuring profitability and valuation.
- Some analysts maintain a negative or neutral outlook, indicating that current headwinds may continue to limit upside until market demand meaningfully recovers.
What's in the News
- U.S. import tariffs, such as those imposed under the Trump administration, are disrupting global trade for European chemical companies. These tariffs are causing customers to delay orders and raising concerns for firms including LyondellBasell (Reuters).
- LyondellBasell Industries repurchased 1,552,339 shares between April 1, 2025 and May 23, 2025, representing 0.48 percent of outstanding shares for $90.18 million. This was part of an ongoing buyback program.
- The company has completed a total buyback of 5,274,335 shares, or 1.63 percent of its outstanding shares, totaling $398.28 million under the program announced in August 2024.
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Fair Value has been revised downward from $59.61 to $58.61, reflecting a modest decrease in perceived company valuation.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 8.96 percent to 9.06 percent, signaling marginally higher risk assumptions in the updated valuation model.
- Revenue Growth estimates have improved marginally, with the projected decline changing from -9.19 percent to -9.18 percent.
- Net Profit Margin is now forecasted to be slightly stronger, moving from 6.89 percent to 6.96 percent.
- Future P/E ratio estimates have declined from 12.06x to 11.77x, suggesting a lower valuation multiple for anticipated earnings.
Disclaimer
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