Update shared on 22 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 2.75%Analyst Commentary Highlights Cautious Outlook as LyondellBasell Faces Lower Price Targets and Market Challenges
The average analyst price target for LyondellBasell Industries has been reduced from $58.61 to $57.00. This change reflects ongoing concerns about weak demand, supply issues, and cautious outlooks highlighted by recent analyst research.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst research on LyondellBasell Industries highlights a range of factors influencing the company's valuation and performance outlook. Opinions are divided, reflecting both ongoing challenges and areas of potential strength.
Bullish Takeaways- Some analysts recognize that LyondellBasell is managing to maintain stability in its commodity businesses, which had shown improvement earlier in the year.
- Despite supply and demand headwinds, the company continues to perform in line with its peers. This indicates resilient execution and operational discipline.
- Certain market participants had anticipated a harsher seasonal slowdown in the third quarter. However, the company has navigated this with less adverse impact than expected.
- Most analysts express caution about the near-term macroeconomic environment, noting that weak demand and elevated supply persist in key industrial end markets.
- Expected seasonal strength in the second quarter failed to materialize. Concerns remain that the fourth quarter could also underperform due to ongoing industry pressures.
- Several analysts have reduced earnings estimates and price targets. This reflects uncertainty regarding the pace of demand recovery and inventory normalization.
- The outlook for commodity chemicals remains highly inconsistent. Industry dynamics have yet to show significant signs of improvement that would support higher valuations in the short term.
What's in the News
- The company has completed the repurchase of 5,274,335 shares, totaling $398.28 million, under its ongoing buyback program. The latest tranche covers April 1, 2025 to May 23, 2025.
- Tariffs on European chemicals imposed by the U.S. threaten to disrupt global trade and impact LyondellBasell as well as other major chemical companies (Reuters).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has been lowered from $58.61 to $57.00, reflecting a modest decrease in fair value expectations.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly, moving from 9.06% to 9.18%, indicating a marginally higher perceived risk or return requirement.
- Revenue Growth estimates remain negative and have declined a bit further, from -9.18% to -9.19%, suggesting slightly greater contraction concerns.
- Net Profit Margin is largely unchanged, increasing marginally from 6.96% to 6.97%.
- Future P/E Ratio has decreased from 11.77x to 11.49x, reflecting slightly lower valuation multiples for projected earnings.
Disclaimer
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