Update shared on 18 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.15%Axalta Coating Systems' analyst price target has been slightly reduced by analysts, with updated estimates moving from approximately $40 to $39. This adjustment reflects a more cautious outlook due to mixed macroeconomic signals and inconsistent performance in industrial end markets.
Analyst Commentary
Recent updates from the analyst community reveal both optimism and concern regarding Axalta Coating Systems' outlook, reflected in revised price targets and changes to ratings.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts continue to maintain Buy ratings, which indicates confidence in the company’s long-term potential, even though price targets have been reduced.
- The resilience of Axalta’s core business segments supports the view that the company is well positioned for growth as macroeconomic conditions improve.
- Stable execution and management messaging give investors a reason to anticipate future benefits once end market headwinds subside.
- Price target adjustments have generally been modest. This reflects only a slight tempering of growth expectations rather than a significant shift in outlook.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts point to a "decidedly negative" macroeconomic setup and recent performance slippage in commodity businesses, which raises concerns about near-term volatility.
- Industrial end markets remain inconsistent. This creates uncertainty around the company’s short-term growth prospects.
- Some believe that previous expectations for seasonal strength have not materialized, suggesting that earnings in the coming quarters may be softer than anticipated.
- A downgrade to a neutral stance by one major analyst group signals growing caution on valuation and execution risks, especially amid ongoing market challenges.
What's in the News
- Akzo Nobel and Axalta Coating Systems are in advanced merger talks, with a possible deal announcement expected soon. (Bloomberg)
- Axalta unveiled two new innovative products at The Battery Show North America: Alesta e-PRO FG Black for thermal stability and fire protection in electric vehicle battery systems, and Alesta e-PRO Dielectric Gray, designed for electrical insulation in EV and energy storage applications.
- The company has updated its financial guidance, now expecting net sales growth in the mid single digit percentage range for the fourth quarter and full-year net sales to exceed $5.1 billion.
- Axalta has completed the repurchase of 8.1 million shares, representing 3.71% of outstanding shares, totaling $266.68 million under its ongoing buyback program.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: The estimated fair value per share has declined marginally from $36.39 to $36.33.
- Discount Rate: The discount rate used in valuation has dipped slightly, from 8.43% to 8.41%.
- Revenue Growth: Projected annual revenue growth has eased fractionally, moving from 2.15% to 2.15%.
- Net Profit Margin: The forecasted net profit margin has decreased from 10.81% to 10.43%.
- Future P/E: The expected future price-to-earnings ratio has risen from 15.50x to 16.04x.
Disclaimer
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