Update shared on 01 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.61%Analysts have modestly reduced their price targets for Axalta Coating Systems, with the average fair value moving from $36.17 to $36.39. This reflects increased caution amid more challenging macro conditions and inconsistent end-market trends.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street Research reflects a mix of optimism and caution regarding Axalta Coating Systems. Analyst commentary highlights both ongoing strengths and persistent headwinds shaping the company's near-term outlook and valuation.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts have maintained Buy ratings, emphasizing confidence in the company's strategic direction and long-term market positioning.
- Despite lowered price targets, the current fair value estimates remain above recent trading levels. This indicates potential for upside if execution improves.
- Resilient performance in some segments suggests the company is well-positioned to capitalize on recovery or normalization in end markets.
Bearish Takeaways
- Several analysts highlighted inconsistent performance across industrial end markets. This has led to a more cautious outlook on near-term growth prospects.
- A negative macroeconomic setup and muted messaging from the company entering the second half of the year have weighed on sentiment.
- The lack of typical seasonal strength and recent slippage in commodity-related businesses are raising concerns about Axalta's ability to meet or exceed expectations.
- One major firm downgraded the stock, reflecting reduced confidence in the company's relative outperformance and a preference for a more neutral stance as industry challenges persist.
What's in the News
- Axalta repurchased 3.3 million shares between July and September 2025, completing a buyback of 8.1 million shares for $266.68 million as part of the program announced in May 2024. (Company Announcement)
- Fourth quarter net sales growth is expected to be in the mid-single digit percentage year-over-year, and full year 2025 net sales are projected to exceed $5.1 billion. (Company Guidance)
- Axalta will unveil two new battery coating products, Alesta e-PRO FG Black and Alesta e-PRO Dielectric Gray, at The Battery Show North America, targeting enhanced safety and performance in EV battery applications. (Product Announcement)
- Alesta e-PRO FG Black, designed for EV battery systems, resists ignition and smoke generation at temperatures up to 1200°C. Alesta e-PRO Dielectric Gray offers robust electrical insulation for high-voltage environments. (Product Announcement)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target (Fair Value): Risen slightly from $36.17 to $36.39.
- Discount Rate: Decreased marginally from 8.47% to 8.43%.
- Revenue Growth: Edged down from 2.25% to 2.15%.
- Net Profit Margin: Improved modestly from 10.80% to 10.81%.
- Future P/E: Declined from 16.31x to 15.50x, which reflects lower expectations for future earnings multiples.
Disclaimer
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