INGR: Demand For Healthful Solutions Will Support Rebound Despite Regional Headwinds

Analysts have reduced their price target for Ingredion from approximately $142 to $124 per share. They cite softer revenue growth expectations and ongoing challenges in key business segments as reasons for the change.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates on Ingredion highlight a nuanced mix of opportunities and challenges affecting the company's valuation and outlook. Analysts have been adjusting their ratings and price targets as they assess both the business momentum and macroeconomic factors impacting Ingredion's growth trajectory.

Bullish Takeaways

• Solid volume and profit growth are being maintained within the core Texture and Healthful Solutions segment. This supports ongoing confidence in Ingredion's specialized product lines.
• Despite lower overall revenue forecasts, some analysts note that the company has continued to execute well in areas tied to healthful ingredients. This remains a source of potential upside as broader industry demand recovers.
• Operational expertise and product innovation could enable Ingredion to outperform in select end markets if macro conditions stabilize or improve.
• Long-term positioning in health-focused solutions may offer future growth opportunities, especially as consumer preferences continue shifting toward wellness-oriented products.

Bearish Takeaways

• Ongoing weakness in the Food and Industrial Ingredients segments, particularly in Latin America and the US, is expected to weigh on profit growth in the foreseeable future.
• Muted consumer demand in key markets, along with challenging year-over-year price comparisons, is leading to caution regarding near-term revenue and margin expectations.
• Lower economic activity in Brazil and Mexico is anticipated to negatively impact both volumes and profitability in those regions over at least the medium term.
• Recent price target reductions reflect a broadly cautious stance on the company's earnings outlook and limited visibility for an immediate rebound in growth.

What's in the News

• Ingredion updated its earnings guidance for full-year 2025, projecting reported EPS between $11.11 and $11.31. The company is forecasting net sales to be flat to down low single-digits, with reported operating income expected to rise low to mid-single-digits (Key Developments).
• The board of directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.82 per share, marking the 11th consecutive year of increases in the third quarter (Key Developments).
• A new share repurchase program was announced, authorizing the buyback of up to 8,000,000 shares through December 31, 2028 (Key Developments).
• As of November 2025, Ingredion had completed the repurchase of 3,687,768 shares for $448.82 million under its previously announced buyback program (Key Developments).
• Ingredion held an Analyst/Investor Day, providing updates to the investment community (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target: Lowered from approximately $142 to $124 per share, reflecting a notable decrease in fair value estimates.
• Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 6.78% to 6.96%, signaling higher perceived risk in future cash flows.
• Revenue Growth: Significantly reduced from 2.20% to just 0.30%. This indicates more cautious expectations for top-line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin: Marginally improved from 9.56% to 9.67%. This suggests slight optimism in profitability despite softer revenues.
• Future P/E: Down from 13.74x to 13.10x. This shows a modest decline in forward earnings multiples used in valuation.