Update shared on 28 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.49%Blue Owl Capital's fair value estimate has edged higher to $21.40 per share. This modest increase reflects analysts’ mixed outlooks on the business following recent price target updates and a review of the company's latest earnings report.
Analyst Commentary
Recent street research reflects a divided outlook on Blue Owl Capital, with both positive and cautious notes from market observers following the company's latest earnings report and external developments.
Bullish Takeaways
- Some bullish analysts raised price targets, expressing confidence in Blue Owl Capital’s ability to deliver growth across key business segments.
- Core fundamentals remain strong, with robust performance observed in wealth product inflows and certain areas of asset management.
- Positive sentiment surrounds management’s handling of recent market uncertainty. There is optimism that the company can capitalize on dislocations and volatility.
- Valuation arguments from bullish commentators highlight the potential for upside, as the core story and execution remain intact despite short-term noise.
Bearish Takeaways
- Several bearish analysts have lowered price targets in response to mixed quarterly results and modestly reduced expectations for fundraising pace.
- Concerns have emerged following external news coverage and unfavorable credit event narratives, contributing to recent downward pressure on the stock.
- Questions persist around quarter-over-quarter fundraising momentum. Projections suggest more modest growth than previously anticipated.
- The removal of Blue Owl from a major 'Best Ideas' list highlights a more cautious institutional view on near-term outperformance relative to peers.
What's in the News
- Blue Owl Capital is considering reviving a previously terminated merger plan between two private credit funds, pending improvements in the larger fund's share price (Reuters).
- The firm recently canceled the merger of its two private-credit funds after investor concerns led to a drop in share price and cast doubt on private credit industry stability (CNBC).
- Blue Owl made a significant move into artificial intelligence infrastructure with a roughly $3 billion investment in an OpenAI-affiliated data center project in New Mexico (The Information).
- In partnership with Meta, Blue Owl Capital owns an 80% stake in the $27 billion Hyperion data center campus. BlackRock ETFs are among the largest investors in related debt (Wall Street Journal).
- Data centers owned by Blue Owl's Stack Infrastructure in Santa Clara, California, remain empty as they await sufficient power supply from the local utility (Bloomberg).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from $21.30 to $21.40 per share, reflecting a modest increase in analyst expectations.
- Discount Rate has fallen marginally from 8.55% to 8.49%, suggesting a slightly lower perceived risk or cost of capital.
- Revenue Growth projections decreased slightly from 14.51% to 14.41%, indicating a minor adjustment in growth outlook.
- Net Profit Margin is up modestly from 44.68% to 44.80%, pointing to expectations of improved profitability.
- Future P/E ratio has edged higher from 12.04x to 12.07x, representing a small upward revision in valuation multiples.
Disclaimer
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