Update shared on 13 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 10%Blue Owl Capital's analyst fair value target has been revised downward from $23.73 to $21.30. Analysts cite a combination of slower projected revenue growth, a higher discount rate, and mixed signals from recent earnings reports to support the adjustment.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research reveals a divided outlook on Blue Owl Capital, with both bullish and bearish signals emerging from updated price targets and research notes.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlighted that despite the recent mixed earnings, Blue Owl’s core business remains resilient, with notable growth in several key segments.
- Some research pointed to strong inflows in wealth products as a positive driver for near-term fundraising, supporting the company’s overall growth story.
- At least one bullish firm cited the current market environment as an opportunity for Blue Owl to outperform, referencing long-term investor maxims to justify an optimistic stance.
- There was at least one upward revision to the stock’s price target, underscoring confidence in the company’s ability to maintain its execution and trajectory.
- Bearish analysts expressed caution following mixed signals in the latest earnings report, particularly in light of a 4% post-announcement share price decline.
- Recent downward revisions in price targets reflect heightened concerns about slower than expected revenue growth and a less favorable macro environment.
- Some firms noted the impact of negative external factors, such as adverse media coverage on unrelated credit events, contributing to uncertainty and investor sensitivity.
- There are expectations of a sequential decline in fundraising activity, with some research projecting a "decent" quarter but a step down from prior periods.
What's in the News
- Blue Owl Capital is making a $3 billion investment in a New Mexico data center as part of OpenAI's Stargate project, highlighting its growing commitment to artificial intelligence infrastructure (The Information).
- Alongside Meta, Blue Owl now holds an 80% stake in the $27 billion Hyperion data center campus. BlackRock ETFs have invested over $3 billion in bonds supporting the project (The Wall Street Journal).
- Two major data centers in Santa Clara, California, including one backed by Blue Owl, remain incomplete due to power supply constraints from the local utility. This has created delays for new digital infrastructure (Bloomberg).
- Blue Owl is working with Goldman Sachs to raise $1.5 billion through the sale of asset manager portfolio stakes, transferring interests from its Dyal Capital Partners IV fund to new investors (Bloomberg).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target (Fair Value): Decreased from $23.73 to $21.30, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 8.43% to 8.55%, pointing to a marginally higher perceived risk or required return.
- Revenue Growth: Revised downward from 17.21% to 14.51%, indicating softer growth expectations ahead.
- Net Profit Margin: Declined significantly from 121.0% to 44.7%, signaling a major reassessment of future profitability.
- Future P/E: Rose from 4.72x to 12.04x, which may suggest higher valuation expectations relative to earnings or lower anticipated earnings growth.
Disclaimer
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