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Customer-for-Life Approach And AI Investments Will Expand Market Share In Financial Sector

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GHLD
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 16 Sep 2024

Update shared on10 Aug 2025

Fair value Increased 6.85%
Previous
AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
US$19.50
2.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
20 Aug
US$19.90
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1Y
15.8%
7D
-1.0%

Guild Holdings' consensus price target has increased to $19.50, primarily reflecting valuation support from Bayview Asset Management's $20 per share acquisition offer and improved sector sentiment, with shares now anchored to the deal price.


Analyst Commentary


  • Reduced probability of adverse ("left-tailed") scenarios in consumer finance is leading to a more constructive sector outlook.
  • Acquisition agreement by Bayview Asset Management for $20 per share, representing a 27% premium to tangible book value, is providing valuation support.
  • The deal price, equating to approximately 1.3-times tangible book value and 10-times forward earnings, is seen as supportive for broader non-bank originator and servicer valuations.
  • Multiple analysts have downgraded Guild to Neutral or equivalent ratings following the take-private agreement, reflecting that the shares are no longer trading on fundamentals.
  • Expectations are for minimal barriers to deal closure, with share prices now anchored to the acquisition offer rather than operational performance.

What's in the News


  • Guild Holdings Company announced a special cash dividend of $0.25 per share on Class A and B Common Stock.
  • Bayview Asset Management agreed to acquire Guild Holdings for approximately $1.3 billion ($20.00 per share in cash); management to remain in place and the company will become a privately held entity; transaction expected to close in Q4 2025, pending regulatory and stockholder approvals.
  • The board approved and stockholders ratified an amendment to the company's Certificate of Incorporation limiting officer monetary liability, effective upon filing.

Valuation Changes


Summary of Valuation Changes for Guild Holdings

  • The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from $18.25 to $19.50.
  • The Net Profit Margin for Guild Holdings has significantly risen from 9.03% to 11.07%.
  • The Future P/E for Guild Holdings has significantly fallen from 9.79x to 8.41x.

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.