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LPRO: Share Repurchases And New Auto Platform Will Drive Stronger Outlook

Digitization And Expanded Nonprime Markets Will Transform Auto Underwriting

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LPRO
AnalystHighTarget
Not Invested
Published 14 May 2025

Update shared on 14 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 43%
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AnalystHighTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-71.2%
7D
0%

Analysts have raised their price target on Open Lending from approximately 7 dollars to 10 dollars, citing expectations for stronger revenue growth, higher profit margins, and a more favorable future earnings multiple, despite a modestly higher discount rate.

What's in the News

  • Open Lending completed its previously announced share repurchase program, buying back 1,971,369 shares, or about 1.65% of shares outstanding, for a total of 3.98 million dollars (company buyback filing).
  • From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, the company did not repurchase any additional shares under the program, signaling the formal conclusion of this buyback tranche (company buyback filing).
  • Open Lending launched ApexOne Auto, an advanced decisioning platform designed to serve the full spectrum of auto borrowers with automated, real time credit decisions (company product announcement).
  • ApexOne Auto leverages automation, data, and explainable intelligence to help lenders improve consistency, transparency, and risk management in auto loan underwriting (company product announcement).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate was reduced modestly from about 7 dollars to 4 dollars per share, reflecting a more conservative intrinsic valuation despite improved fundamentals.
  • The discount rate was increased slightly from roughly 8.6 percent to about 9.9 percent, indicating a higher required return and marginally greater perceived risk.
  • Revenue growth was raised significantly from about 78 percent to approximately 125 percent, signaling much stronger expectations for top line expansion.
  • Net profit margin increased markedly from roughly 25 percent to about 46 percent, implying a more efficient and profitable operating profile in future projections.
  • Future P/E is now explicitly modeled at roughly 6.8 times, where it was previously not specified, providing a clearer valuation anchor for forward earnings.

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