KSPI: Discounted Entry After 25% Pullback Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Kaspi.kz slightly higher from approximately $108.32 to $108.57, citing the stock's recent 25% pullback and its current significant discount to historical forward earnings multiples, despite ongoing regulatory and macro headwinds.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst sentiment around Kaspi.kz has turned more constructive following the recent share price correction, with upgraded ratings reflecting a view that current levels undervalue the company relative to its historical fundamentals and earnings power.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that the stock’s roughly 25% pullback over the past year has opened an attractive entry point, with the shares trading at a meaningful discount to the company’s three year average forward earnings multiple of 8.1.
• The revised target price of $107, while reduced from prior estimates, still implies material upside from current levels. This suggests confidence that earnings growth and margin resilience can offset recent macro and regulatory pressures over time.
• Supportive views emphasize Kaspi.kz’s diversified revenue streams across Marketplace and banking. They argue that the platform model and scale advantages position the company to resume its historical growth trajectory once near term headwinds stabilize.
• Valuation oriented bulls see scope for multiple re rating as the regulatory cost outlook becomes clearer and investors refocus on the company’s structural growth profile and cash generation.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts remain cautious that additional regulatory costs tied to the Marketplace and banking operations could structurally compress profitability, limiting the pace of future earnings expansion.
• There are concerns that a higher for longer monetary policy backdrop may weigh on consumer demand and credit growth, potentially slowing transaction volumes and fee based revenue across Kaspi.kz’s ecosystem.
• The cut in the formal target price, even alongside an upgrade in rating, underscores lingering uncertainty around the company’s medium term growth algorithm and the sustainability of historical return levels.
• Some more cautious voices warn that, despite the apparent valuation discount, further negative surprises on regulation or macro conditions could delay a re rating and keep the shares range bound in the near term.

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from $108.32 to $108.57, reflecting a modest upward revision in the intrinsic value assessment.
• Discount Rate has increased marginally from 9.87% to 9.94%, indicating a slightly higher perceived risk or required return in the updated model.
• Revenue Growth has been revised up significantly from 14.16% to 20.08%, suggesting stronger expectations for top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin has fallen from 32.45% to 28.86%, implying a more conservative view on future profitability despite higher growth assumptions.
• Future P/E has decreased from 8.16x to 7.78x, pointing to a slightly lower valuation multiple applied to forward earnings in the latest analysis.