Update shared on 25 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.25%Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for Kaspi.kz from $114 to $107, citing continued regulatory challenges and a higher monetary policy environment. They also noted the stock's current discounted valuation.
Analyst Commentary
Recent updates from street research shed light on both optimism and lingering concerns surrounding Kaspi.kz’s prospects. Analysts have reassessed their outlook in light of the company’s valuation multiples, regulatory pressures, and evolving market environment.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts cite that Kaspi.kz now trades at a significant discount compared to its three-year historic average forward earnings multiple. This positions the stock as potentially undervalued.
- The recent 25% decline in share price over the past 12 months is seen as having already accounted for many current challenges, which may widen the upside for new investors at current levels.
- Despite regulatory pressures, analysts point to the company’s resilient revenue streams from its core Marketplace and banking operations as a foundation for long-term growth.
- Forecasts indicate that stabilization of monetary policy in the future could alleviate some of the present pressures on the company’s financial performance.
- Bearish analysts remain cautious due to ongoing regulatory costs, particularly affecting the Marketplace and banking divisions. These factors could continue to weigh on profitability.
- The persistence of a higher-for-longer monetary policy environment may limit near-term growth and add to financial pressures.
- Uncertainty around further regulatory interventions and compliance costs presents risks to Kaspi.kz’s execution of its strategic initiatives.
- Despite the discounted valuation, some experts argue that headwinds could prevent a swift recovery to historic earnings multiples.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has decreased slightly, from $109.68 to $108.32 per share.
- Discount Rate has risen marginally, from 9.83 percent to 9.87 percent.
- Revenue Growth Forecast has fallen significantly, from 19.56 percent to 14.16 percent.
- Net Profit Margin has increased, from 30.89 percent to 32.45 percent.
- Future P/E Ratio estimate has declined, from 8.76x to 8.16x.
Disclaimer
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