Update shared on12 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.98%Affirm’s price target was revised higher to $95.03 as analysts highlighted strong GMV growth, resilient fundamentals, and improving credit quality driven by a shift toward 0% APR products, while noting margin risks from intensifying BNPL competition.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite Affirm’s strong quarterly results, with beats across revenue, earnings, and especially Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), as well as the company’s above-expectation FY26 guidance despite the loss of a key enterprise client.
- Exceptional 43% year-over-year GMV growth and positive momentum in fintech sector fundamentals underpin multiple upward price target revisions, with some analysts believing Affirm is achieving at the high end of management’s guidance.
- Shifting the product mix toward 0% APR offers has attracted higher-credit consumers, suggesting improving credit quality and ability to compete for more affluent customers as BNPL adoption grows mainstream and moves upmarket.
- Stable macroeconomic environment, active partnership announcements, and resilient consumer spending trends are expected to translate to sustained top-line growth and further quarterly revenue beats.
- Bearish analysts highlight intensifying competition in BNPL from players like Synchrony (with Amazon partnership) and potential margin pressure from both rivals and traditional credit card offerings, which could force Affirm to accept lower margins and presents risk if GMV acceleration is not sustained.
What's in the News
- Affirm (AFRM) began sharing all customer data with Experian and TransUnion earlier this year, in contrast to Klarna and Afterpay, which are withholding most BNPL data over concerns about credit score impacts (WSJ, 2025-08-05).
- Klarna is considering reviving its U.S. IPO as soon as September, reaffirming its competition with Affirm in the BNPL space (Bloomberg, 2025-08-01).
- JPMorgan will start charging fintechs, including Affirm, for access to customer bank account information later this year; these fees may be passed on to the companies or consumers (Bloomberg, 2025-07-14).
- FICO is launching a new credit scoring model that incorporates “buy now, pay later” loans from providers such as Affirm and Klarna for the first time (WSJ, 2025-06-23).
- Affirm is ahead of major competitors in sharing BNPL loan data with credit bureaus, potentially giving it an advantage as credit reporting practices become more standardized (WSJ, 2025-08-05).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Affirm Holdings
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $93.18 to $95.03.
- The Net Profit Margin for Affirm Holdings has risen from 12.63% to 13.29%.
- The Future P/E for Affirm Holdings has fallen slightly from 56.50x to 54.73x.
Disclaimer
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