Update shared on27 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 4.55%Affirm Holdings’ consensus price target has been raised to $76.68, reflecting analyst optimism about strong BNPL growth, resilient earnings trends, and new partnerships outweighing competitive pressure and margin concerns.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite stable macroeconomic conditions, continued strong spending trends in fintech and Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) segments, and positive Q2 earnings momentum as primary reasons for raising price targets.
- Affirm is expected to achieve or surpass the higher end of its gross merchandise volume (GMV) and total payment volume (TPV) guidance, reinforcing confidence in near-term revenue beats.
- Robust activity in new partnerships and continued mainstream adoption of BNPL, especially among more affluent demographics, support an improved long-term outlook.
- Bearish analysts highlight heightened competitive pressure, particularly from Synchrony entering the Amazon BNPL relationship, which could result in meaningful market share losses for Affirm and margin compression.
- Concerns persist around balancing margin pressure against slowing GMV growth amid increasing competition, while broader sector underperformance and trade uncertainty present additional headwinds.
What's in the News
- Affirm (AFRM) stands out as it began sharing all customer data with Experian and TransUnion earlier in 2025, while key competitors like Klarna (KLAR) and Afterpay are withholding BNPL data until credit scoring systems adapt to fairly evaluate such loans (Wall Street Journal, 2025-08-05).
- Klarna, a major competitor, is considering reviving plans for a U.S. IPO as soon as September 2025, which could affect the competitive landscape in the BNPL market (Bloomberg, 2025-08-01).
- JPMorgan will start charging fintechs, including Affirm, for access to customer bank account data later in 2025, potentially increasing operating costs for these companies (Bloomberg, 2025-07-14).
- FICO plans to introduce a new credit scoring model in 2025 that will incorporate BNPL loans as a recognized form of credit, a move relevant for Affirm and its peers (Wall Street Journal, 2025-06-23).
- Industry-wide, there is growing scrutiny of how BNPL data is reported to credit agencies, and regulatory and scoring system evolution may significantly impact Affirm’s customer base and business model (Wall Street Journal, 2025-08-05 & 2025-06-23).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Affirm Holdings
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $73.34 to $76.68.
- The Net Profit Margin for Affirm Holdings has risen slightly from 6.70% to 6.87%.
- The Future P/E for Affirm Holdings remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 88.53x to 87.59x.
Disclaimer
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