Brinker International's analyst price target has been revised downward from $176.44 to $171.27. Analysts cited choppy demand trends and moderate downside risk for U.S. restaurants, leading to a more cautious outlook on near-term same-store sales growth.

Analyst Commentary

Recent street research reflects a spectrum of outlooks on Brinker International, with changing expectations for near-term performance and long-term opportunity. Analysts have highlighted both areas of optimism and caution, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in demand trends for U.S. restaurants.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts note that Brinker delivered a year of significant same-store sales growth and margin expansion, particularly at Chili's. This suggests the company can execute effectively in a challenging environment.
• Upgrades to the company’s rating and several price target increases reflect continued confidence in management’s strategic vision and ability to drive sustained momentum.
• Recent financial results, including over 100% growth in adjusted EPS, demonstrate strong operational execution and a healthier balance sheet with reduced leverage.
• Momentum into the new fiscal year is supported by positive comps and traffic expectations. This indicates underlying consumer demand for the brands remains resilient.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts have lowered their price targets in light of choppy demand trends and emphasize the potential for a softer finish to upcoming quarters.
• There is increased caution regarding near-term same-store sales growth as rising comparisons and consumer pressures may limit upside.
• Some foresee moderate downside risk for Brinker and the broader sector. They suggest that expectations may need to be tempered as the competitive and cost environment evolves.
• Skepticism persists regarding whether positive sales and traffic trends can be maintained every quarter, especially as the industry cycles through tougher year-over-year benchmarks.

What's in the News

• Brinker International provided fiscal 2026 guidance, forecasting total revenues between $5.60 billion and $5.70 billion. Net income per diluted share (excluding special items, non-GAAP) is expected to range from $9.90 to $10.50 (Key Developments).
• On August 11, 2025, the company announced a $400 million increase to its equity buyback plan. This raised total authorization to $4,972.48 million and remaining authorization to $507 million (Key Developments).
• No shares were repurchased in the tranche from March 27, 2025 to June 25, 2025. Total repurchases remain at 131,771,840 shares for $4,465.84 million since the program began in 1998 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen by $5.17, moving from $176.44 to $171.27.
• Discount Rate has eased slightly, decreasing from 9.12% to 9.12%.
• Revenue Growth expectation has risen from 4.65% to 5.05%.
• Net Profit Margin forecast has edged down from 9.23% to 9.10%.
• Future P/E Ratio has declined modestly, shifting from 17.72x to 17.24x.