Brinker International's analyst price target has been reduced from $180.25 to $176.44, amid concerns over softer demand trends and moderated expectations for near-term sales growth, according to recent analyst commentary.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst actions provide a mixed perspective on Brinker International's outlook, with both bullish and bearish themes emerging as firms adjust their price targets and ratings in response to the latest performance data and industry trends.

• Bullish analysts point to sustained positive momentum in Chili's performance, noting the chain's ability to deliver impressive same-store sales growth and expand margins over the past year.
• Upgrades in ratings and raised price targets reflect confidence in management's strategic direction and successful execution, particularly in driving adjusted EPS growth and strengthening the company's balance sheet.
• Some analysts are encouraged by continued improvement across key metrics, believing that the company is positioned for solid long-term growth as operational initiatives gain traction.
• Strong fourth-quarter results, even if more modest than previous quarters, are seen as evidence of Brinker's resilience in a challenging environment.

• Bearish analysts are cautious about choppy demand trends in the U.S. restaurant sector and warn that the near-term sales growth outlook has become more conservative.
• Some firms have lowered their price targets and adopted a more neutral stance, highlighting the risk of a softer finish to the current quarter and potential downside among comparable companies.
• Skepticism remains regarding management's guidance for positive comparable sales and traffic at Chili's throughout the upcoming fiscal year, with concerns about tougher year-over-year comparisons.
• Broader industry pressures and uncertainty around maintaining recent growth rates are prompting analysts to moderate their expectations for valuation and future performance.

What's in the News

• Brinker International provided fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting total revenues between $5.60 billion and $5.70 billion, and net income per diluted share (excluding special items) of $9.90 to $10.50. (Key Developments)
• The company increased its equity buyback plan authorization by $400 million, raising the total to $4,972.48 million with $507 million remaining. (Key Developments)
• No shares were repurchased in the most recent tranche, from March 27, 2025 to June 25, 2025. Overall, 131,771,840 shares have been repurchased since 1998, totaling $4,465.84 million. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased from $180.25 to $176.44, indicating a slightly lower fair value assigned by analysts.
• Discount Rate has risen modestly from 9.07% to approximately 9.12%, reflecting a marginal increase in perceived risk or cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth projections have edged down slightly from 4.67% to 4.65%, suggesting a small reduction in expected top-line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin expectations have improved, increasing from 9.12% to 9.23%, which signals forecasts for better bottom-line efficiency.
• Future P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) has declined from 18.28x to 17.72x, which points to a lower earnings multiple applied in forward-looking valuations.