Update shared on 22 Nov 2025
Analysts have increased their price target for Brightstar Lottery from $18 to $22 per share, citing recent jackpot-driven upside and accelerating organic growth as key factors behind the upward revision.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish Takeaways- Recent jackpot activity, particularly from Powerball and Mega Millions, is driving near-term revenue upside and supporting higher estimates for the upcoming quarter.
- Multiple growth vectors are cited as contributing to an impending inflection point in organic growth, which signals potential for sustained momentum.
- Ongoing investor engagement with company management has increased confidence in the trajectory of both revenue growth and margin expansion.
- Upside to the valuation is supported by normalization of jackpot levels, which analysts expect will foster a positive re-rating of the company’s shares.
What's in the News
- Signed a two-year contract extension with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation, solidifying Brightstar's role as technology provider for the Texas Lottery through August 2028 (Client Announcements).
- Declared a 10% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.22 per common share. Payment is scheduled for December 2, 2025 (Dividend Increases).
- Reaffirmed fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance at approximately $2.5 billion. Projected 2028 revenue is $2.75 billion, reflecting over 5% organic CAGR driven by U.S. and Italy iLottery expansion (Corporate Guidance, New/Confirmed).
- Announced an exclusive five-year global licensing agreement with Avanti Licensing Inc. to develop lottery games inspired by Avanti's humorous greeting cards (Client Announcements).
Valuation Changes
- The discount rate has risen slightly, moving from 12.96% to 13.11%, reflecting a modest increase in perceived risk.
- Revenue growth assumptions have been revised lower, decreasing from 1.38% to 1.24% for forward projections.
- Net profit margin has increased from 10.94% to 12.02%, indicating expectations of stronger profitability in coming years.
- The future P/E ratio has fallen from 15.27x to 14.02x, suggesting a more attractive valuation given the updated earnings outlook.
- The fair value estimate remains unchanged at $19.07 per share, despite adjustments to other key metrics.
Disclaimer
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